A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 246

Table B8. Node C4: Numerical Response

Numerical Response

Node A1:
Factor B—
Overutilization

Node A4:
Factor C—
Disease and Predation

Node l2:
Vital Rates

Increased
Density

Same as
Now

Reduced
Density

Rare Absent

Improve fewer same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Improve fewer worse 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.0 0.0

Improve same as now same as now 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Improve same as now worse 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.0 0.0

Improve more same as now 0.3 0.35 0.35 0.0 0.0

Improve more worse 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0

Same as now fewer same as now 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Same as now fewer worse 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now same as now 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now worse 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0

Same as now more same as now 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0

Same as now more worse 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Decline fewer same as now 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

Decline fewer worse 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0

Decline same as now same as now 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Decline same as now worse 0.0 0.0 0.75 0.25 0.0

Decline more same as now 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2

Decline more worse 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4

Table B9. Node D: Change in Foraging habitat Distribution

Distribution of Foraging habitat

Node C:
Foraging habitat
Absence Change

Node N:
Shelf Distance
Change

Improved
Availability

Same as
Now

Reduced
Availability

Greatly Reduced
Availability Node M: Ecoregion Unavailable

Polar basin divergent -1 to 0 -200 to 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent -1 to 0 0 to 200 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent -1 to 0 200 to 800 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent -1 to 0 >= 800 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent 0 to 1 -200 to 0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent 0 to 1 0 to 200 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent 0 to 1 200 to 800 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0

Polar basin divergent 0 to 1 >= 800 0.0 0.0 0.25 0.5 0.25

Polar basin divergent 1 to 3 -200 to 0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent 1 to 3 0 to 200 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

Polar basin divergent 1 to 3 200 to 800 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4

Polar basin divergent 1 to 3 >= 800 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Polar basin divergent >= 3 -200 to 0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0

Polar basin divergent >= 3 0 to 200 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4

Polar basin divergent >= 3 200 to 800 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9

Polar basin divergent >= 3 >= 800 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Polar basin convergent -1 to 0 -200 to 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent -1 to 0 0 to 200 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent -1 to 0 200 to 800 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent -1 to 0 >= 800 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent 0 to 1 -200 to 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent 0 to 1 0 to 200 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent 0 to 1 200 to 800 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent 0 to 1 >= 800 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent 1 to 3 -200 to 0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0