A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 244

Table B5. (continued)

level of human Disturbance

Node B1:
Bear-Human
Interactions

Node R1:
Oil and Gas
Activity

Node J:
Shipping

Node J1:
Tourism

Same
as Now

Greatly
Elevated Reduced Elevated

Increased same as now increase increased 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Increased same as now increase same as now 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Increased same as now increase decreased 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7

Increased same as now no change increased 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

Increased same as now no change same as now 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3

Increased same as now no change decreased 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2

Increased same as now decrease increased 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3

Increased same as now decrease same as now 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1

Increased same as now decrease decreased 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0

Same as now increased increase increased 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Same as now increased increase same as now 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

Same as now increased increase decreased 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2

Same as now increased no change increased 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0

Same as now increased no change same as now 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0

Same as now increased no change decreased 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0

Same as now increased decrease increased 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0

Same as now increased decrease same as now 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0

Same as now increased decrease decreased 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0

Same as now same as now increase increased 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0

Same as now same as now increase same as now 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0

Same as now same as now increase decreased 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0

Same as now same as now no change increased 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.0

Same as now same as now no change same as now 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now no change decreased 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now decrease increased 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now decrease same as now 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now decrease decreased 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0

Decreased increased increase increased 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4

Decreased increased increase same as now 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2

Decreased increased increase decreased 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0

Decreased increased no change increased 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0

Decreased increased no change same as now 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

Decreased increased no change decreased 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0

Decreased increased decrease increased 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

Decreased increased decrease same as now 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0

Decreased increased decrease decreased 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now increase increased 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0

Decreased same as now increase same as now 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

Decreased same as now increase decreased 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0

Decreased same as now no change increased 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now no change same as now 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now no change decreased 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now decrease increased 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now decrease same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Decreased same as now decrease decreased 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0