A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 243

Table B3. Node A4: Factor C Disease and Predation

level of Disease and
Predation
Same as Now

Node T :
Parasites and Disease

Node T2:
Predation

Worse

Inluential influential 0.0 1.0

Inluential not 0.3 0.7

Not influential 0.7 0.3

Not not 1.0 0.0

Table B4. Node A6: Factor E Other Factors Natural or Man-Made

level of Other Factors

Node C1: human
Disturbance

Node C2:
Pollution

Minor
Restriction

Major
Restriction

Improvement No Effect

Reduced reduced 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reduced same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reduced elevated 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0

Reduced greatly elevated 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4

Same as now reduced 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0

Same as now same as now 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Same as now elevated 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0

Same as now greatly elevated 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6

Elevated reduced 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3

Elevated same as now 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5

Elevated elevated 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6

Elevated greatly elevated 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7

Greatly elevated reduced 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7

Greatly elevated same as now 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Greatly elevated elevated 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9

Greatly elevated greatly elevated 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Table B5. Node C1: human Disturbance

level of human Disturbance

Node B1:
Bear-Human
Interactions

Node R1:
Oil and Gas
Activity

Node J:
Shipping

Node J1:
Tourism

Same
as Now

Greatly
Elevated Reduced Elevated

Increased increased increase increased 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Increased increased increase same as now 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Increased increased increase decreased 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9

Increased increased no change increased 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Increased increased no change same as now 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9

Increased increased no change decreased 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Increased increased decrease increased 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7

Increased increased decrease same as now 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4

Increased increased decrease decreased 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5