Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 4. (continued)
Node A4: Factor C—Disease
and Predation
Node A6: Factor E—Other Factors (Natural or Man-Made)
Most
Probable
Outcome
Same
as Now
(%)
Minor
Restriction
(%)
Major
Restriction
(%)
Time
Period
Worse
(%)
Most Probable
Outcome
Improvement
(%)
No Effect
(%)
Basis
year 75
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 25
Ensemble mean
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
46.40
42.20
11.40
year 50
Ensemble mean
worse
30.00
70.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
28.00
72.00
year 75
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 25
GCM maximum
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
46.40
42.20
11.40
year 50
GCM maximum
worse
30.00
70.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
28.00
72.00
year 75
GCM maximum
worse
30.00
70.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion
Year −10 Satellite data
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
improvement
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
year 0
Satellite data
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
year 25
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 50
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
3.00
97.00
year 95
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
15.00
85.00
year 25
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 50
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
15.00
85.00
year 25
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 50
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
18.00
82.00
Polar Basin Convergent Ecoregion
Year −10 Satellite data
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
improvement
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
year 0
Satellite data
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
year 25
GCM minimum
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
80.00
10.00
10.00
year 50
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
GCM minimum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 25
Ensemble mean
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
80.00
10.00
10.00
year 50
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
Ensemble mean
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 25
GCM maximum
same_as_now
100.00
0.00
no_effect
0.00
80.00
10.00
10.00
year 50
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 75
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
year 95
GCM maximum
worse
0.00
100.00
major_restriction
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.00
a See Plate 3.
Relative to the FWS listing factors, overall population
outcome was most influenced by stressors related to factor A
(habitat threats). Influences from factor B (overutilization),
factor E (other natural or man-made factors), and factor C
(disease and predation) provided progressively less influ-
ence (Appendix C, sensitivity test 2).
Recognizing the sensitivity of model outcomes to changes
in sea ice, we reran the BN population stressor model under
 
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