A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 223

Table 3. (continued)

Node F2: Factor A—habitat Threats Node A1: Factor B—Overutilization

No
Effect
(%)

Minor
Restriction
(%)

Major
Restriction
(%)

Same
as Now
(%)

Time
Period

Most Probable
Outcome

Improvement
(%)

Most Probable
Outcome (%)

Fewer
(%)

More
(%) Basis

Polar Basin Convergent Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data improvement 97.48 2.52 0.00 0.00 fewer 100.00 0.00 0.00

year 0 Satellite data improvement 88.56 10.43 1.01 0.00 same_as_now 0.00 100.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum improvement 87.20 11.20 1.60 0.00 same_as_now 0.00 89.00 11.00

year 50 GCM minimum minor_restriction 1.10 14.38 48.19 36.32 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 23.60 76.40 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 23.60 76.40 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 Ensemble mean no_effect 20.80 38.40 32.80 8.00 same_as_now 0.00 89.00 11.00

year 50 Ensemble mean minor_restriction 1.25 15.49 49.10 34.16 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.00 17.65 82.35 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.24 22.16 77.60 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 GCM maximum no_effect 20.80 38.40 32.80 8.00 same_as_now 0.00 89.00 11.00

year 50 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.29 4.22 45.49 50.00 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.58 25.18 74.24 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.35 23.13 76.52 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

a See Plate 3.

Table 4. Results of the Bayesian Network Population Stressor Model, Showing the Most Probable Outcome States, and Probabilities of
Each State, for Disease/Predation and Other Disturbance Factors Variables (Nodes A4 and A6) for Four Polar Bear Ecoregions a
Node A4: Factor C—Disease
and Predation

Node A6: Factor E—Other Factors (Natural or Man-Made)

Most
Probable
Outcome

Same
as Now
(%)

Minor
Restriction
(%)

Major
Restriction
(%)

Time
Period

Worse
(%)

Most Probable
Outcome

Improvement
(%)

No Effect
(%) Basis

Seasonal Ice Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data same_as_now 100.00 0.00 improvement 84.80 15.20 0.00 0.00

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now 100.00 0.00 no_effect 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum worse 30.00 70.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 50 GCM minimum worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 75 GCM minimum worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 95 GCM minimum worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 25 Ensemble mean worse 30.00 70.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 50 Ensemble mean worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 75 Ensemble mean worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 95 Ensemble mean worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 25 GCM maximum worse 30.00 70.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 50 GCM maximum worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 13.00 87.00

year 75 GCM maximum worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 95 GCM maximum Worse 0.00 100.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00

Archipelago Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data same_as_now 100.00 0.00 major_restriction 4.80 20.00 34.80 40.40

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now 100.00 0.00 no_effect 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum same_as_now 100.00 0.00 no_effect 0.00 46.40 42.20 11.40

year 50 GCM minimum worse 30.00 70.00 major_restriction 0.00 0.00 28.00 72.00