A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 222

Table 3. Results of the Bayesian Network Population Stressor Model, Showing the Most Probable Outcome States, and Probabilities
of Each State, in Percentiles, for habitat Threats and Direct Mortalities Summary Variables (Nodes F2 and A1) for Four Polar Bear
Ecoregions a

Node F2: Factor A—habitat Threats Node A1: Factor B—Overutilization

No
Effect
(%)

Minor
Restriction
(%)

Major
Restriction
(%)

Same
as Now
(%)

Time
Period

Most Probable
Outcome

Improvement
(%)

Most Probable
Outcome (%)

Fewer
(%)

More
(%)

Basis

Seasonal Ice Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data improvement 94.60 5.00 0.40 0.00 fewer 100.00 0.00 0.00

year 0 Satellite data no_effect 26.41 36.84 23.02 13.72 same_as_now 0.00 100.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.60 10.52 43.40 45.48 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 50 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.08 2.00 16.64 81.28 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 75 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 4.72 95.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 4.72 95.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.60 10.52 43.40 45.48 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 50 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.08 2.00 16.64 81.28 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 75 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.00 4.72 95.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.00 4.72 95.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.60 10.52 43.40 45.48 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 50 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.40 9.68 43.60 46.32 same_as_now 0.00 62.60 37.40

year 75 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.08 9.60 90.32 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.08 9.60 90.32 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

Archipelago Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data no_effect 39.00 44.60 16.40 0.00 same_as_now 4.80 53.00 42.20

year 0 Satellite data improvement 88.56 10.43 1.01 0.00 same_as_now 0.00 100.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum no_effect 20.80 38.40 32.80 8.00 same_as_now 0.00 75.14 24.86

year 50 GCM minimum no_effect 32.48 41.28 22.30 3.94 more 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 75 GCM minimum minor_restriction 4.08 24.32 40.32 31.28 more 0.00 30.00 70.00

year 95 GCM minimum minor_restriction 4.08 24.32 40.32 31.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 Ensemble mean no_effect 20.80 38.40 32.80 8.00 same_as_now 0.00 75.14 24.86

year 50 Ensemble mean no_effect 32.48 41.28 22.30 3.94 more 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 75 Ensemble mean minor_restriction 4.96 25.44 39.84 29.76 more 0.00 30.00 70.00

year 95 Ensemble mean minor_restriction 4.08 24.32 40.32 31.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 25 GCM maximum no_effect 20.80 38.40 32.80 8.00 same_as_now 0.00 75.14 24.86

year 50 GCM maximum improvement 41.92 38.40 17.06 2.62 more 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 75 GCM maximum no_effect 32.48 41.28 22.30 3.94 more 0.00 0.00 100.00

year 95 GCM maximum minor_restriction 4.08 24.32 40.32 31.28 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data improvement 99.68 0.32 0.00 0.00 fewer 100.00 0.00 0.00

year 0 Satellite data no_effect 30.20 47.24 20.54 2.02 same_as_now 0.00 100.00 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 2.16 45.44 52.40 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 50 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 same_as_now 0.00 60.60 39.40

year 95 GCM minimum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 same_as_now 0.00 63.00 37.00

year 25 Ensemble mean minor_restriction 0.72 12.72 48.96 37.60 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 50 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.36 9.80 89.84 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 Ensemble mean major_restriction 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 same_as_now 0.00 63.00 37.00

year 25 GCM maximum minor_restriction 0.89 13.45 48.62 37.04 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 50 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.36 9.80 89.84 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 75 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 5.08 94.92 same_as_now 0.00 60.00 40.00

year 95 GCM maximum major_restriction 0.00 0.00 5.08 94.92 same_as_now 0.00 63.60 36.40