A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 219

Table 2. Results of the Bayesian Network Population Stressor Model, Showing the Most Probable Outcome State, and Probabilities, in
Percentiles, of Each State for Overall Population Outcome (Node D1) for Four Polar Bear Ecoregions a
Node D1: Overall Population Outcome

Time
Period

Most Probable
Outcome

Same as
Now (%)

Basis larger (%) Smaller (%) Rare (%) Extinct (%)

Seasonal Ice Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data larger 93.92 5.75 0.30 0.02 0.00

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now 21.85 43.72 18.98 8.37 7.07

year 25 GCM minimum extinct 0.37 3.87 25.41 22.59 47.76

year 50 GCM minimum extinct 0.05 0.61 9.79 12.36 77.19

year 75 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.09 3.48 8.28 88.15

year 95 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.09 3.48 8.28 88.15

year 25 Ensemble mean extinct 0.37 3.87 25.41 22.59 47.76

year 50 Ensemble mean extinct 0.05 0.61 9.79 12.36 77.19

year 75 Ensemble mean extinct 0.00 0.09 3.48 8.28 88.15

year 95 Ensemble mean extinct 0.00 0.09 3.48 8.28 88.15

year 25 GCM maximum extinct 0.37 3.87 25.41 22.59 47.76

year 50 GCM maximum extinct 0.24 2.20 24.37 19.35 53.85

year 75 GCM maximum extinct 0.01 0.18 5.17 9.52 85.11

year 95 GCM maximum extinct 0.01 0.18 5.17 9.52 85.11

Archipelago Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data same_as_now 22.51 34.73 31.48 8.72 2.56

year 0 Satellite data larger 69.48 29.26 1.06 0.19 0.00

year 25 GCM minimum same_as_now 14.23 36.36 32.10 6.58 10.73

year 50 GCM minimum smaller 4.57 12.93 51.34 20.60 10.56

year 75 GCM minimum extinct 0.89 3.16 32.07 19.34 44.54

year 95 GCM minimum extinct 1.38 4.65 33.38 19.51 41.07

year 25 Ensemble mean same_as_now 14.23 36.36 32.10 6.58 10.73

year 50 Ensemble mean smaller 4.57 12.93 51.34 20.60 10.56

year 75 Ensemble mean extinct 1.05 3.34 32.25 26.07 37.30

year 95 Ensemble mean extinct 1.38 4.65 33.38 19.51 41.07

year 25 GCM maximum same_as_now 14.23 36.36 32.10 6.58 10.73

year 50 GCM maximum smaller 5.83 15.93 52.35 18.01 7.88

year 75 GCM maximum smaller 4.42 12.40 49.36 22.96 10.85

year 95 GCM maximum extinct 1.38 4.65 33.38 19.51 41.07

Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion

Year −10 Satellite data larger 99.78 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now 24.16 56.60 13.36 4.73 1.14

year 25 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.97 18.98 23.00 57.05

year 50 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.00 2.86 10.58 86.55

year 75 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.00 3.07 10.91 86.02

year 95 GCM minimum extinct 0.00 0.00 3.88 12.23 83.89

year 25 Ensemble mean extinct 0.21 2.37 27.43 24.69 45.30

year 50 Ensemble mean extinct 0.00 0.18 6.16 13.34 80.33

year 75 Ensemble mean extinct 0.00 0.00 2.86 10.58 86.55

year 95 Ensemble mean extinct 0.00 0.00 3.88 12.23 83.89

year 25 GCM maximum extinct 0.25 2.43 27.88 27.58 41.86

year 50 GCM maximum extinct 0.00 0.18 6.16 13.34 80.33

year 75 GCM maximum extinct 0.00 0.07 4.46 12.00 83.47

year 95 GCM maximum extinct 0.00 0.09 5.73 13.84 80.33