Multiple Equilibria and Abrupt Transitions in Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 161

Plate 1. Statistical properties of 10 4 member ensembles of solutions to (6) - (8) for indicated values of albedo feedback
parameter b (in W m -4 ) and OHT variability parameter s 0 (in W m -2 ). Thick blue curves represent ensemble mean A n , and
thin blue curves represent ranges of 1 standard deviation about these values (left-hand scale). Thick red curves indicate
probability that a given year lies within an interval of abrupt decrease in A n , and thin red curves indicate probability of
an abrupt increase (right-hand scale). For the case with CCSM3 parameter values (top middle panel), the probability of
abrupt decrease as determined from an ensemble of seven CCSM3 simulations is indicated in green.