The Role of Natural Versus Forced Change in Future Rapid Summer Arctic Ice Loss - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 138

Plate 4. May ice thickness that is present 5 years prior to a regional loss in September ice extent. For each ensemble
member, the date at which September ice-free conditions first occur is assessed for each model grid cell, and shown here
is the May ice thickness that was present 5 years prior to that date for each of the eight ensemble members and for the
ensemble mean of the eight runs (bottom right). Black contours indicate 1-m intervals.