Geoscience Reference
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year etc.) Soil depletion is expected under such heavy land use unless sustainability
measures are provided. Egypt is already a major cereal importer, and demand is
expected to increase. As a result, the country is vulnerable to deficits in food
production resulting from climate change. Expected higher prices for food imported
from developed countries would aggravate the situation considerably.
Marginal agriculture and marginal farming are the most vulnerable, both to short
term variations in local weather conditions and long term variation of climate.
Adjusting to climate change will be made difficult by several factors: ownership
of cultivated land is widespread but limited - 98 % of owners have a holding size of
less than 5 ha each. Also, many types of farming are practiced near the edge of their
appropriate climate zone. These marginal factors, along with under capitalization
or low levels of financing, render farming particularly vulnerable to the effects of
climate change (EEAA
1995
). Livestock and fisheries are also vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change, though changes in climatic conditions and sea level rise
are expected to affect populations and various species differently.
In summary, the following climate changes impacts on agriculture are expected:
1. Increase of temperature and frequency of extreme events will reduce crop yield
(some crops are more tolerant than others).
2. Change of average temperature will induce changes of the agricultural distribu-
tion of crops.
3. Increase of temperature will negatively affect marginal land and force farmers to
abandon marginal land.
4. Shortage of water resources will also force farmers to abandon marginal land,
and this will accelerate land degradation.
5. Socio-economic impacts associated with loss of jobs, such as increase of
unemployment, loss of income, and political unrest.
An assessment of the impacts of climate change on some crops has been
advanced (e.g. Eid et al.
1993
). However, a detailed quantitative assessment of the
impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, has not been carried out yet.
5.3
Change of Precipitation, Wind Velocity and Heat Waves
No assessment of the vulnerability of the coastal zones or inland areas to this impact
is available for Egypt, nor is there any reliable model for prediction. However, the
following impacts are to be expected to a greater or lesser degree:
1. Increased vulnerability of slum areas to wind and flood damage, and increased
frequency of floods and fires in rural, as well as in some urban, areas. Settlements
built in the path of old stream torrents will be particularly vulnerable.
2. Increased vulnerability of livestock due to shortage of water resources, increased
salinity, and loss of grazing sites.
3. Changes in the frequency, timing and duration of heat waves will affect agricul-
tural yields, and increase number and variety of insect pests.
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