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trend that every 24 months the number of transistors that could be packed into a very
large scale integration (VLSI) wafer per unit surface area was doubling due to improve-
ments in lithographic and manufacturing techniques. Although Moore predicted a dou-
bling every 24 months, the industry came to believe the rate was closer to 18 months,
although Moore himself never said it.
The increased density resulted in shorter path length for electrons in the circuits,
smaller design attributes, and better pipelining, all of which added to the improved per-
formance of the CPU in a roughly linear way. However, in recent years several scientists
have predicted the demise of Moore's Law as the VLSI attributes are approaching theo-
retical minimums that will prevent the exponential growth in transistor density to con-
tinue. Even so, a broader look at processing technology suggests that the performance
trend actually predates VLSI, and is likely to continue into the future through other
advances, such as improved pipelining, multicore CPUs, and alternative fabrication
substrates like Gallium Arsenide and CMOS technology, and other emerging improve-
ments (electro-optic, quantum, etc.). If the rate of performance growth remains roughly
constant, one can expect a single $1,000 home computer by the year 2020 to have the
processing power of the human mind. By the year 2060 a $1,000 home computer
Figure 13.3
Trends in computations per second per $1,000, 1900-2020.
