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pathway in the face of climate change and increased incidence of drought
(Cooper et al. 2008); in the Afar region it is often less profitable and more
environmentally damaging than pastoralism (Behnke and Kerven 2013).
Closer study of values and interests in Afar reveals that many changes that
drive vulnerability form part of specific development pathways and associated
notions of developments that have highly differentiated and in part negative
effects. Development pathways are the result of particular values and the power
relations through which different interests are negotiated. Powerful actors (such
as the government) see pastoralism as less valuable than cultivation, making it
difficult to secure support for pastoralist interests in development decisions.
Although both Mille and Uwwa districts have received government food aid and
some NGO attention (e.g. from Médecins Sans Frontières and APDA), much of
the support that would engender effective systems of support for restocking and
ensure viable mobility is sorely missing. This modernization-led development
pathway has had the most direct effects in Mille, where the Tendaho dam
was seen as a threat to local interests: the benefits were not apparent to our
interviewees, while the negative effects were immediate and dramatic: flooding.
In both Mille and Uwwa, indirect effects of the modernization pathway have
been the loss of grazing land, long-term herd decline and the perceived need to
shift from their preferred lifestyle - pastoralism - to farming.
Such developments reinforce perceptions among our informants that
they are not consulted in development plans. When discussing development
interventions, all key informants said that they felt they had no influence,
and that they were not represented by local politicians who could influence
such decisions. A real risk is that inequitable power relations (locally as well as
between central government and local communities) and prejudicial processes
of resource appropriation (land in particular) can be reinforced and exacerbated
if adaptation policy measures involve disbursement of development funds
through these same power structures.
In contrast to a blanket application of modernization strategies, sustainable
adaptation approaches would consider multiple development pathways.
Interventions would need to represent and negotiate diverse values and interests,
and address inequitable power relations and political marginalization. In Afar,
sustainable adaptation would ensure that key decisions prioritize pastoralism as
part of a diverse set of livelihoods, and that key grazing areas are not converted to
agriculture or other development schemes. Instead, interventions might include
the provision of services that would make it easier for pastoralists to tackle the
combined onslaught of drought and disease (through services like veterinary
facilities, water-harvesting structures, assistance to re-stocking after drought,
and/or mobile health and education units).
 
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