Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
discussion
The three spinoff cases show how unplanned effects from technological
and socio-economic changes are being used, or could be used, by socially
vulnerable groups for dealing with climate-related challenges. In addition to
the opportunities that arise directly from top-down development policies,
utilizing the spinoff potential could bring into play a new type of development,
whereby adaptive capacity is heightened through social innovations that emerge
within the local communities themselves. Social activators (empowerment),
ICT (cellular telephones), capitalization on new lifestyle changes (consumer
demands) or other emerging trends could feed into positive feedback loops and
enhance adaptive capacity to climate change.
As socio-economic changes are so complex, the causes and effects are rarely
unidirectional. Many links in cause-effect chains will in turn further influence
the need to reinforce and develop adaptation strategies for meeting the challenges
of a warmer world. While one phenomenon can be said to lead to a particular
spinoff, such as tourism leading to new livelihood opportunities, the subsequent
changes could also be seen as the effects of alternate factors or combinations of
them. In the lifestyle case, some farmers chose to grow strawberries, not only
for income from passing tourists, but also because it was less labour-intensive.
The same case also highlights the two-way directionality of causes and effects.
The decreased vulnerability stemming from greenhouse cultivation, where
crops receive greater protection from climate extremes, can serve to increase
incomes. This in turn makes it possible for farmers to visit restaurants or
overnight accommodation or buy organic food that augments incomes for other
'converted' farmers. Farmers who cannot invest in greenhouses need to find
other alternatives for reinforcing their climate adaptation. The adaptive capacity
of farmers must also be continually re-evaluated as conditions change and they
engage in new livelihood activities and response strategies.
However, capitalizing on emerging societal demands through new livelihood
activities will not automatically promote positive spinoffs. The lifestyle case
shows that entering new markets for products or services may involve various
management and/or technological choices or practices. These will in turn affect
the source and degree of household exposure to climate impacts and adaptive
capacity as well as contributions to other global issues. For example, the budding
market demand for wine in western China may induce farmers to increase
their grape production through additional cropped areas. While current water
resources may support this, glacier meltwater is projected to diminish in some
areas as future temperatures rise. Further, livestock raising can enhance farmers'
incomes, but in a long-term global perspective, increased meat consumption
threatens sustainable land use and increases GHG emissions. Serving locally
produced and organic food at newly opened restaurants is considered an
environmentally friendly, low-emission pathway. But, as the local consumer base
expands to include tourists from farther away, even international destinations,
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