Geoscience Reference
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introduCtion
Development as usual is not enough
Siri Eriksen, Tor Håkon Inderberg, Karen O'Brien
and Linda Sygna
In many parts of the world, climate change has become more than an abstract
problem to be discussed at international conferences or debated in the media: it
is an everyday reality with implications for people's livelihoods and lives. It is a
process that is experienced both through slow long-term changes in ecological
conditions and through extreme climate events. While long-term changes can
influence agriculture, water, health and other sectors, it is often the shifting
frequencies and magnitudes of storms, floods, droughts and other extremes
that bring home the significance of climate change for vulnerable populations
(SREX 2012; IPCC 2014a). Both types of changes underscore the importance
of adaptation and mitigation responses, particularly in the context of sustainable
development.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014a, 2014b) clearly indicates
that the future is a choice. According to the IPCC, continuation along current
trajectories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely to lead to global
temperature increases of 4°C or more in this century, contributing to changes in
social, economic, political, technological and ecological systems and functioning
at a rate and on a scale unparalleled in human history (IPCC 2014a). These
fundamental, systemic changes introduce potential thresholds and tipping
points, such as disruption of the Indian and West African monsoons (Lenton et
al. 2008). However, we can still achieve low-emission pathways that minimize
temperature increases, sea-level rise, loss of sea ice, ocean acidification, and
other impacts. But these will require transformations of a different sort - not
only in energy, food, water and urban systems, but also in social systems and
structures, and in development pathways. Even such low-emission pathways
will lead to dramatic impacts and potential tipping points for some groups, so
there is a need to adapt to imminent climate changes, in addition to transforming
developmental pathways.
 
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