Reconstruction Plans and Planning Process After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami - Post-Tsunami Hazard: Reconstruction and Restoration - page 16

On the other hand, the population of the elderly people (i.e., over 65 years old)
has been increasing from approximately 14 % in 1990 to 27 % in 2010. This trend
is much more noticeable in the small municipalities.
Another important issue that should be mentioned is the fi scal problem of the
local municipalities, as this is linked to spatial planning. The real debt expenditure
burden ratio of Ishinomaki city is 14.3 % in 2010, and other municipalities are also
in a similar situation. When exceeding 18, municipalities must obtain permission of
the national government for municipal bond issue, this situation can be estimated to
be severe. This also reveals the importance of a planning process that emphasizes
on effi ciency.
Regarding spatial planning, urban sprawl and deterioration of the inner city have
been signifi cant issues in the provincial cities. The maintenance of small settlements
along the coast, where the presence of industrial depression is evident, has also
caused severe problems. In recent years, additional problems occurred due to the
“reverse sprawl,” a typical timeless, geographic phenomenon of generation of
vacant lots during population decline.
Based on these premises, it is recognized that the spatial planning in Japan should
shift its paradigm from an expanding, low density structure with a centralized
top-down decision making process a sustainable and compact, networking struc-
ture with a decentralized bottom-up decision making process. However, effective
solutions for realization of new paradigm of spatial planning have not been
developed yet.
In addition to this, the Great East Japan Earthquake has raised the question of
resilience of urban and rural areas. In Japan, both structural and non-structural
counter measures have been taken to tsunami hazard, construction of levee, evacua-
tion training in the school and local communities for example. This achieved some
positive results, such as lower death rate compared to other areas, Banda Aceh in
Indonesia for example (TTILIT 2012 ). However, the size of the number of the GEJE
tsunami victims shows the room for improvement to enhance resilience to natural
disasters. Some of those countermeasures are closely- linked to spatial planning.
Therefore, it is important to coordinate with it and to realize in the framework of
the new paradigm of spatial planning.

2.2.1 Summary of Reconstruction Plans

According to a general survey on the affected municipalities, the content of the
reconstruction plans can be summarized as follows.
Land protection, through coastal levees, should take place against the “level 1”
tsunami, occurring with frequencies in the range between once every several decades
and a hundred years (“tsunami protection level”). Protection against the largest-
scale tsunami, “level 2” tsunami, which occurs once every several hundred or
more years, should be guaranteed from both structural and non-structural aspects
(“tsunami diminishing level”). The inhabitable area is limited to an expected inundation