Effectiveness of Real-Time Near-Field Tsunami Inundation Forecasts for Tsunami Evacuation in Kushiro City, Hokkaido, Japan - Post-Tsunami Hazard: Reconstruction and Restoration - page 162

The tsunami inundation forecast produced by the NearTIF algorithm from this simple
fault model slightly underestimates the observations but is considered reliable for
tsunami early warning purposes (Gusman et al. 2014 ).

11.3.5 Tsunami Source Model from Tsunami Waveform

Inversion

At least two methods that use offshore tsunami data have been developed for real-
time tsunami forecasting. The Center for Tsunami Research (NOAA) has developed
the Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT), a real-time tsunami inun-
dation forecasting scheme (Titov et al. 2005 ; Tang et al. 2009 ; Titov 2009 ), which is
now fully operational in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Center. Another method is the
tsunami Forecasting based on Inversion for initial sea-Surface Height (tFISH), for
near-fi eld tsunami forecasting (Tsushima et al. 2009 ). The algorithm is currently
being integrated into the JMA tsunami forecasting system. Both algorithms deter-
mine an initial sea-surface deformation in a possible tsunami source area and then
synthesize tsunami waveforms at some points of interest by utilizing precomputed
tsunami Green's functions (Titov et al. 2005 ; Tang et al. 2009 ; Titov 2009 ; Tsushima
et al. 2009 , 2011 ; Wei et al. 2013 ).

11.4 Tsunami Hazard Map for Kushiro City

According to historical records, great earthquakes have frequently occurred in the
Tokachi-oki and Nemuro-oki segments off the Pacifi c coast of Hokkaido. These
earthquakes are the 1843 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake
(Mw 8.2), the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 1894 Nemuro-oki earthquake (Mw
8.2), and the 1973 Nemuro-oki earthquake (Hatori 1984 ; Hirata et al. 2003 ; Tanioka
et al. 2004 , 2007 ). A great earthquake that possibly occurred in the early of seven-
teenth century has been discovered from tsunami sediment data (Nanayama et al.
2003 ). The earthquake fault model for the seventeenth century great Hokkaido
earthquake has been estimated by use of tsunami sediment data in previous studies
(Satake et al. 2005 ; Ioki 2013 ). From these historical and prehistorical tsunamigenic
earthquakes, Kushiro City has been identifi ed as a tsunami-prone area.
Tsunami hazard maps can increase the effectiveness of evacuation plans for com-
munities at risk. The Kushiro City Offi ce has provided a tsunami hazard map for
Kushiro City to the public ( http://www.city.kushiro.lg.jp/common/000049875.pdf )
(Fig. 11.6 ). The tsunami inundation limit and tsunami fl ow depth shown on the map
represent the worst-case scenario. The locations and elevation above mean sea level
of evacuation buildings and areas are also shown on the map (Fig. 11.6 ). Once the
areas of tsunami inundation hazard have been identifi ed, a community-wide effort