Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 11
Effectiveness of Real-Time Near-Field
Tsunami Inundation Forecasts for Tsunami
Evacuation in Kushiro City, Hokkaido, Japan
Aditya Riadi Gusman and Yuichiro Tanioka
Abstract
An algorithm called NearTIF, designed to produce tsunami inundation maps
of near-fi eld sites before the actual tsunami hits the shore, was previously developed by
the authors. This algorithm relies on a database of precomputed tsunami waveforms at
several near-shore locations and tsunami inundation maps from various earthquake fault
models. In the event of a great earthquake, tsunami waveforms at the above mentioned
near-shore locations are computed on the basis of real-time observation data by use of
linear long-wave equations. Simulating these tsunami waveforms takes only 1-3 min on
a common personal computer, so the realistic offshore tsunami waveforms can be fore-
casted. The offshore real-time simulated tsunami waveforms are then compared with
precomputed tsunami waveforms in a database to select the site-specifi c best fault
model and the corresponding tsunami inundation map. The best tsunami inundation
map is then used as the tsunami inundation forecast. We evaluated the effectiveness of
this algorithm in the real world by carrying out a tsunami evacuation drill in Kushiro
City, Hokkaido, Japan, involving the city residents. The drill started with the announce-
ment of a tsunami warning, to evacuate the residents to the nearest evacuation building.
Approximately 10 min after the announcement, the tsunami inundation forecast map
was given to the participants in the drill. The participants found that the use of the tsu-
nami inundation forecast map produced by NearTIF was effective in helping them
make better decisions with high confi dence during the tsunami evacuation drill. The
NearTIF algorithm is recommended for use as part of the reconstruction policy by local
authorities to improve the evacuation effi ciency, particularly in tsunami-prone areas.
Keywords
Tsunami inundation forecast Tsunami evacuation drill Tsunami
early warning Precomputed tsunami database
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