Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
FIGURE 16-9
Learning curve of the wind turbine costs versus number of 300 kW units produced. (Source:
American Wind Energy Association, Washington, D.C. With permission.)
For new technologies, the price keeps declining during the early phase of
a new product at a rate which depends on the nature of the technology and
the market. The pattern varies widely as seen in new technologies such as
the computer, telephone, and airline industries. For wind turbines, the cost
per kW capacity has declined with the number of units produced, as seen
in
Figure 16- 9
.
The declining electricity price was seen earlier in
Figure 2-2
.
In general, the future cost of a new product can be expressed as follows:
(
)
()
=
log
NN
t
Ct
C
o
λ
,
0
< <
λ
1
(16-1)
2
o
where
C
(
t
) = cost at time t
C
= cost at the reference time
o
N
= cumulative production at time t
t
N
= cumulative production at reference time
o
based on the historical data is complex, and
the estimate may be debated among the experts. However, the expression
in itself has shown to be valid time and again for new technologies in the
past. It may be used to forecast the future trends in the capital cost decline
in any new technology, including the wind and photovoltaic power.
Estimating the parameter
λ
