Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
TABLE 16-2
Wind Power Technology, Past, Present and Future
Technology Status
1980
1997
After 2000
Cost per kWh*
$0.35-$0.40
$0.05-$0.07
<$0.04
Capital cost per kW
$2,000-3,000
$500-800
<$500
Operating life
5-7 years
20 years
30 years
Capacity factor (average)
15 percent
25-30 percent
>30 percent
Availability
50-65 percent
95 percent
>95 percent
Size range
50-150 kW
300-1000 kW
500-2,000 kW
*
For wind sites with average annual wind speed of 7 meters/second
(15.6 miles per hour) at 30 meters (100 feet) hub height.
cost. The wind power cost has dropped to 5 cents per kWh, and the DOE
projections suggest that further reduction to about 2 cents is possible by 2010
with favorable financing. The American Wind Energy Association forecasts
that the five top-growth markets for wind energy through 2005 will be the
U.S.A., India, China, Germany, and Spain, with capacity additions of
between 1,275 and 2,730 MW projected in each country.
Table 2-2
in
Chapter 2 listed the cumulative installed wind-generating capacity in
selected countries. In 1995, India and Germany together accounted for two-
thirds of the entire world's added wind capacity.
The renewable power sources are clean, abundant, and do not need to be
imported. However, they must be economical on their own merit. The new
developments are meeting this challenge on the both fronts, the initial capital
cost and the cost per unit of electricity generated.
Since the early 1980s, wind technology capital costs have declined by
80 percent, operation and maintenance costs have dropped by 80 percent
and availability factor of grid-connected plants has risen to 95 percent
(
Table 16-2
)
. For the wind plans at present, the capital cost has dropped
below $800 per kW and the electricity cost to about 6 cents per kWh. The
goal of current research programs is to bring the wind power cost below
4 cents per kWh by the year 2000. This is highly competitive with the cost
of conventional power plant technologies. According to the National Renew-
able Energy Laboratory, several research partners are negotiating with U.S.
electrical utilities to install additional 4,200 MW of wind capacity at a capital
investment of about $2 billion throughout the nation during the next several
years. This amounts to the capital cost of $476 per kW, which is comparable
with the conventional power plant costs. According to the Electric Power
Research Institute, the continuing technology developments and production
economy would make the wind the least-cost energy within a decade.
The industry experts make this forecast based on the following ongoing
research programs:
•
more efficient airfoil and blade design and manufacturing.
•
better understanding on the structure and foundation loads under
turbulence, operating fatigue loads and their effect on life.
