Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
he hallenge of climate hange: Australia and the
Murray-Darling Basin
Climate hange adds another layer to the concerns about productivist agriculture in
Australia. Predictions are that:
• Australia will be one of the most adversely affected nations of the world in relation
to declines in agricultural production.
• Australian wheat, beef, dairy and sugar production are expected to decline by over
11 per cent (and potentially up to 60 per cent) by 2030, and by at least 15 per cent
(and potentially up to 79 per cent) by 2050.
• Changing temperature and rainfall regimes will lead to more extreme weather
events (floods, droughts, cyclones).
• While there will be moderate cropping increases in north-eastern Australia, there
will be significant crop reductions in south-western and inland regions.
• There will be an increased spread of exotic weeds and native woody species.
• Pests suh as the ueensland fruit ly and the catle tik will increase their prom-
inence in eastern Australia.
• Waterlogging, soil acidification, soil erosion and dryland salinity will increase.
• There will be salinization of waters used for irrigation, and coastal freshwater sys-
tems will become saline in areas affected by rising sea levels (ABARE, 2007; Gun-
asekera
et al.
, 2007).
It has been estimated that if temperatures increase by more than two degrees,
pasture growth will decline by over 30 per cent, with a subsequent reduction in live-
stok carrying capacity of approximately 40 per cent (Australian Government, 2010).
In the face of these productivity-limiting predictions, there is no hoice - according
to ABARE - but for farmers to continue to 'maintain strong productivity growth'
or leave the industry through farm 'adjustment' (see Gunasekera
et al.
, 2007, p657).
These are the same old prescriptions touted by the Bureau for decades - but they
continue to fit nicely with the promotion of an industrial agriculture/agribusiness
future for Australia. Adaptation measures suh as the harnessing of new tehnolo-
gies - including genetically-modified organisms - are now being endorsed by the
Bureau as key to the overall success of Australian farmers in dealing with climate
hange (Nossal
et al.
, 2008). here is no discussion of alternative approahes to farm-
ing, and - for a Bureau with 'Resources' as part of its title - very litle focus on
resource protection and sustainability. In fact, during the decade of the Howard gov-