Biomedical Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
had no prior vaccination experience and therefore lacked not only stocking
capabilities but also the fi nancial and logistics skills required for profi table vaccine
dispensing.
13.5
Vaccine Sales Forecasting
A number of factors make it important to have accurate vaccine sales forecasts.
First, vaccine manufacturing facilities require large investments and are typically
uniquely dedicated (Berndt et al. 2009 ). Secondly, because of the long and complex
manufacturing cycles (on average 15-20 months, with the notable exception of fl u
vaccines), the possibility to respond rapidly to higher demand is limited (Scherer
2007 ). Thirdly, the limited shelf life of vaccines increases the risk that excess quantities
cannot be sold and must be destroyed.
Accurate forecasts are particularly diffi cult for new vaccines against new disease
targets, and for diseases the incidence of which fl uctuates signifi cantly such as sea-
sonal fl u and pandemics. A case in point is the 2009 H1N1 fl u. The number of doses
purchased by the US government based on forecasts exceeded demand by about 70
million doses, representing 43 % of supply. The excess inventory, valued at about
$450 million, was subsequently destroyed (Bigongiari 2010 ). Other countries had
similar experiences.
Sales forecasting is easiest for vaccines which have a well established tradition
of routine vaccination of an easily quantifi able and reachable target. This is the case
for vaccinating birth cohorts with classical infant vaccines in developed countries.
Random demand shocks occur when competitors cannot supply due to quality
problems. To protect the population against product shortages, the FDA requires
vaccine manufacturers to hold an inventory corresponding to several months of sales.
Global vaccine sales forecasts are built “bottom-up” by combining country fore-
casts. Country vaccine forecasts use the same methods as the ones used generally
for pharmaceuticals (Cook 2006 ). New product forecasts multiply the eligible popu-
lation by the expected vaccination rate and price. Such forecasts are generated by
segments (e.g., by age groups, and public vs. private segment) and combined for
country sales forecasts. Assumptions about the expected vaccination rates are based
on analogies, market research, and judgment. Sales forecasts for in-market vaccines
are generally based on statistical methods (trend extrapolation) combined with
judgmental adjustments.
13.6
Trends in Vaccines and Vaccine Marketing
Children have been the traditional consumer target group for the vaccine industry.
Most vaccines still target children's diseases, and publicly fi nanced routine immuniza-
tion programs in high-income countries have provided the industry with a predictable
revenue stream. But in recent years and in the future adolescents and adults will
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