Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
F
UTURE
E
NERGY
D
EMAND AND
C
LIMATIC
P
ROTECTION
The increase in the consumption of fossil energy resources is the main reason
for the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. As mentioned before, the use of fossil
fuels will have to be strictly limited to minimize the negative consequences of
climate warming.
In the short term, however, the reverse is likely to happen: the use of fossil
energy sources and the resulting carbon dioxide emissions will increase even
more without immediate and drastic changes to today's global energy policy.
Evolution of the global energy demand
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in 1988
by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations
Environmental Programme (UNEP). It publishes reports that are the basis of
political consultations and decisions. The IPCC has formulated several
scenarios for this century, describing possible developments of energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2000). These scenarios examine different
developments of industrial dynamics, population growth and use of fossil fuels.
The aim of this investigation is to illustrate the impact of different scenarios
on the climate and to explore possible negative consequences.
The results for six scenarios, called A1F1, A1B, A1T, A2, B1 and B2, are
described (see Table 1.16):
•
The A1 group of scenarios shows rapid economic growth. The peak of the
population size is towards the middle of the 21st century. Three
technological developments form sub-scenarios. Scenario A1F1 assumes
an intensive use of fossil energy resources, scenario A1B assumes a well-
balanced use of all energy sources and scenario A1T assumes the forced
use of carbon dioxide-free renewable energy sources.
•
Scenario A2 describes heterogeneous development with continuous
population increase and a slower technical development.
•
In scenario B1, the population growth is similar to that of the A1 group,
but it is a fast-developing, educated and service-orientated society with
reductions in material intensity of production and with the introduction of
clean and sustainable technologies.
•
Scenario B2 assumes a continuous growth in population, but less than that
of scenario A2. The emphasis of economic development is on social and
ecological sustainability. New developments are accepted more slowly in
this scenario than in scenario B1.
Table 1.16 and Table 1.17 show the most important assumptions made for the
different scenarios in the years 2020, 2050 and 2100. The columns for 1990
and 2001 serve as reference to past development because the reference year is
1990. Table 1.18 illustrates the resulting development of carbon dioxide
