Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
7
1400
€
Germany (
/Wp)
6
USA ($/Wp)
Japan (Yen/Wp)
1200
5
1000
4
800
3
600
2
400
1
200
0
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source:
IEA-PVPS, 2003
Figure 6.3
Photovoltaic Module Prices in Germany, Japan and the USA
This chapter will not give a prediction for future cost developments,
because so many unknown parameters will influence them. However, if future
progress ratios are in the same range as the progress ratios of the past few
decades, renewable energy systems will surely become competitive with all
conventional energy types within the 21st century. Besides cost reduction of
renewable energy systems, the increase in fuel costs for conventional systems
due to limited conventional energy resources will force this development in the
long term.
However, exactly when renewable energy systems will dominate the global
energy sector depends mainly on the question of when our society will give
these energy resources a high priority to counteract the negative consequences
of using conventional energy sources.
Costs of conventional energy systems
Conventional systems are often compared to renewable energy systems with
respect to economics. However, external costs are often excluded from this
comparison. Therefore, the following sections will discuss this point in more
detail. Without considering external costs, the
levelled electricity generation
costs
of big power stations are in the range of
0.03/kWh
el
to
0.07/kWh
el
for
€
€
coal-fired power plants and between
0.04/kWh
el
for natural
gas-fired combined gas and steam turbine power plants.
Private gas or oil heating systems for space heating usually have heat
generation costs of between
0.03/kWh
el
and
€
€
0.06/kWh
therm.
The heat generation
costs for domestic water heating are normally a little higher because the
conventional heating systems operate at part-load with a lower efficiency
0.05 and
€
€
