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2.
We rate the evidence E1 as follows: Michael's father lived 3 years after diagnosis as
negative relative to the event of interesting: Michael is able to live 5 years. Considering
Michael's father is his direct relative, we assign a degree(father's condition->Michael 5-
year survival) = -1.
3.
Similarly, we rate the evidence E2 as follows: Michael's older sister lived 4 years after
diagnosis as negative relative to the event of interesting: Michael is able to live 5 years.
Considering Michael's sister is his direct relative and the year 4 is pretty close to 5, we
assign half degree(older sister's condition->Michael 5-year survival) = -.5.
4.
Calculate the overall degree: FinalDegree = -1 + (-.5) + (-1.9) = -3.4.
5.
Convert the degree to the final strength:
strength(answer) = 10 degree(answer) / 10
= 10 -3.4 / 10
= 1 / 2.2 = 0.45
6.
Thus, the revised range will be: 15-45%.
Note: our assignments of degrees to the two evidences (in step 2, 3) are arbitrary in a sense
that it is not verified. In real situation, we should determine these values by clinical trials.
As a consequence of these reasoning steps, the evidence reasoning software produces the
revised survival probability as shown in Figure 8.
7.7 Java code for the reasoning software
The screen captures in the previous section are produced by Java code. We implemented the
prototype using popular Java language. List 1 shows the code that produces the output
screens.
List 1: Java code to produce the output screens
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