Transport, climate change and the city - Transport Climate Change and the City - page 13

per cent ( Figure 1.8 ) (International Energy Agency, 2010). Clearly oil is a finite resource, and
there is much debate in the literature about the future supply of oil. Estimates for the peaking
of oil supply range from '2007-08' to 'after 2010' (World Energy Council) and '2025' (Shell)
(Strahan, 2007). The International Energy Agency suggests that peak oil production, of con-
ventional oil supplies, may have passed in 2006. Oil peaking is likely to result in dramatically
higher oil prices as suppliers and consumers react to perceived supply shortages, and there is
already some evidence of this type of price volatility. There are startling forecasts of conven-
tional oil supplies lasting for only '46 more years', assuming proven reserves and current con-
sumption rates (US Energy Information Administration, 2009). In parallel, though, the scope
for usage of non-conventional oil 8 seems very large, despite serious environmental concerns
in extracting these sources. There is even potential for North America to again be a net exporter
of oil by 2035 (International Energy Agency, 2012).
The 'average world citizen' in 2050 may travel as many kilometres as the average European
did in 2005 (Schäfer and Victor, 2000; Schäfer et al., 2009). In 2005, the average West European
travelled 14,000 km, and the range of global estimates for 2050 are between 11,400 km and
16,400 km, and there will be an increase of 44 per cent in the global population to 9,109
million. This means that the overall levels of mobility will be over three times those in 2005
(from 38,000 billion passenger km to between 140,000 and 150,000 billion passenger km in
2050). Sperling and Gordon (2009) predict a doubling of the current car fleet by 2030, with
many more vehicles and motorised two-wheelers, and Dimitriou (2006b) notes the difficulties
with the growth of motorisation in Asia, with fast-rising numbers of middle-class inhabitants
within cities, and rapidly changing lifestyles and consumption patterns of 'the fortunate'. The
net result is a rapidly rising demand for travel, and this has major implications for energy
usage and oil consumption.
Closely linked, CO2 emissions by country and region vary markedly internationally, globally
and within regions, with the only consistent pattern being the steady increase over time, with
a near doubling of CO2 emissions between 1973 and 2008 (International Energy Agency,
2010b). The OECD countries, China, the former Soviet Union and other Asian countries are
the largest aggregate emitters, reflecting their large populations ( Figure 1.9 ) .
Global CO2 emissions can be compared over time ( Figure 1.11 ), illustrating how much
has been released from 1850 to 2000 (530 GtCO2); from 2000 to 2010 (380 GtCO2),
emphasising the recent huge growth in emissions; and the perceived 'safe' level of emissions
relative to 2 o C warming (500 GtCO2); and through the use of conventional reserves (750
GtCO2). The difficulty in using non-conventional reserves is in the likely emissions that will
follow (2,050 GtCO2).
China is now the highest emitter in aggregate terms, with 2010 CO2 emissions at 8,320
MtC02 relative to 5,610 MtCO2 in the US ( Figure 1.12 ) . Considering per capita emissions
shows the inequitable nature of CO2 emissions internationally. Per capita emissions are highest
in the countries with high car ownership and car dependent lifestyles, such as the United States
(18.1 tonnes CO2 per person, tpp), Australia (18.8 tpp), Canada (16.3 tpp), Japan (9.2 tpp),
Taiwan (13.3 tpp) and the UK (8.5 tpp). Asia, on the whole, has low per capita emissions,
such as India (1.4 tpp). China is rising quickly (6.3 tpp), as are Thailand (4.2 tpp), and Malaysia
(6.7 tpp). Some countries in the Middle East have very high per capita emissions, such as the
United Arab Emirates (40.1 tpp). The world average is 4.6 tpp (all energy consumption, 2010)
(Energy Information Administration, 2010). The country time-series ( Figure 1.13 ) shows rapid
increases in CO2 emissions over time from 1965 to 2005, particularly in countries such as
Malaysia, where CO2 emissions have more than trebled since 1990 (World Bank, 2010b).