Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
series of mutually supporting clusters together with detailed implementation pathways.
It covers Phases 1, 2 (in part), and 4, 5, 6 and 7, in the schema above, but it places a far
greater emphasis on participation and discussion throughout the process. It includes an
educational and learning function, as well as a more pragmatic normative policy objective.
There are no easy answers to the question of what form our mobility should (or even will)
be in 2030 or 2050. But certainly we should attempt to develop storylines and strategies,
which provoke debate over the key issues, and can be discussed as part of the 'strategic
conversation' in each city. These can help us look backward from where we would like to
be, to where we are at present, and then to develop the pathway(s) in between. Well-structured
implementation programmes can be developed, progressing consistently towards the strategic
goals, with a phased sequence of interventions, helping to achieve a consensual, or at least
widely agreed, future. The potential conflict here is that to achieve a consensual view often
requires a weakening of the policy interventions. In the case of carbon reduction this should
not be the way out, as weak implementation would result in little or no improvement, and
this is where leadership and a clear understanding of the importance of the issues must form
the basis of any agreement. If travel can be made much more sustainable at the city level -
in all of the major cities internationally - then the impact on global emissions will be significant.
The backcasting form of scenario building is a normative method, and it provides an
effective approach to measure, analyse and intervene in transport and city planning. It also
has the potential to become the dominant approach in transport planning, particularly where
the need is for a longer term outlook or where there exists a future of great uncertainty.
Quantum change is an essential part of effective action, and mere incrementalism is not even
worth discussing. Central to the achievement of sustainable transport is progressive, consistent,
and long term commitment to action.
Drawing on the inspiration of Hall (1963; 1989), and even earlier luminaries in 'looking
backward' such as Bellamy (1888), we can ask what our travel behaviours might look like in
2030 or 2050, and what might be generic to cities. There are many questions evident: will
transport and movement be a positive experience? Will the affective dimensions of travel be
improved (the quality of the journey and interaction)? Which types of transport and travel
will become less used or obsolete? Are some journey types less useful and more suitable to
demand management? In the end, how can transport best contribute to the sustainable city?
There will, of course, be a much smaller global environmental footprint for transport than
at present. In the leading cities in 2030, and the majority of cities by 2050, much of travel
will be local, using walking and cycling as important modes of travel, supported by extensive
networks of well integrated and clean (in terms of CO2 emissions) public transport. Low-
emission vehicles are used, but only where the use of other modes is not possible. Private
cars are not the first choice of travel for most people. The travel patterns of the Netherlands,
Germany, Denmark and Sweden in 2010 have been replicated internationally, with cycling
infrastructure and public transport improvements seen as critical, and the first option for
transport investment in the sustainable city. The mode share benchmark of at most 20-30 per
cent of trips by car (and these by low-emission vehicles) is seen in almost all urban areas
internationally. The ownership of vehicles will change markedly, with a much greater share
of car rental and leasing. Transport policy and investment will be geared to achieving this
headline figure. The share of walking, cycling and public transport varies by area according
to opportunities and aspirations, but there are two main models that are sought after: the public
