Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
In the case studies, the 'meta narrative' scenarios have been broadly applied to each of the
five case studies, with of course large differences in application by context. The policy
measures, though within similar scenarios, are very different in that certain policy measures
are suited to particular context-specific problems and opportunities.
Figures 8.5
and
8.6
bring
together the results in absolute and per capita terms. For each city seven different sets of
comparable values are given for city related transport CO2 emissions and for per capita levels.
These represent historical emissions (1990), the current baseline (one of 2004, 2005, 2006,
2010), future BAU (2030 or 2041), the three different future scenarios (2030 or 2041) and an
equity target where the same aspiration for per capita emissions is used. The main comments
on the findings are:
Overall (absolute) emissions
•
CO2 emissions in 1990 and 2005 show the high levels of London (at around 10 MtCO2),
as a large industrialised city with relatively high levels of car ownership and use. The
other case study contexts are fairly low in emissions, either due to small populations
(Oxfordshire, and to a lesser extent Auckland) or low levels of car ownership and use
(Delhi and Jinan).
•
As time progresses to 2030, the BAU scenarios show CO2 emissions changing markedly.
London increases marginally (nearly 12 MtCO2), but Delhi grows rapidly (over 26 MtCO2)
and Jinan (over 16 MtCO2). Auckland approaches 8 MtCO2 and Oxfordshire nearly 3
MtCO2.
•
The future scenarios reduce emissions significantly relative to BAU, particularly under
Scenario 4, where low-emission vehicles are delivered at the mass scale and behavioural
change is strong.
Per capita emissions
•
The per capita data show a very different story, as the impacts of large populations are
removed, and the focus is, to a greater extent, on the level of car ownership and use.
Auckland (3.7 tCO2) and Oxfordshire (3.1 tCO2), for example, have very high transport
CO2 emissions per capita in 2005, relative to London (1.3 tCO2), Delhi (0.4 tCO2) and
Jinan (0.2 tCO2), resulting from current high levels of car dependency.
•
The BAU projections to 2030 extrapolate the historic trends, including estimated population
growth, motorisation and mode share, but are modified by the current policy approach
which tends to include some traffic demand management, in the industrialised countries
at least. Auckland (3.8 tCO2) and Oxfordshire (4.1 tCO2) remain high, with some increase
in per capita levels, relative to London remaining steady (1.4 tCO2), Delhi increasing
nearly to London per capita levels (1.0 tCO2) and Jinan increasing at a rapid rate (2.0
tCO2).
•
Again, the future scenarios reduce per capita emissions significantly relative to BAU,
particularly under Scenario 4.
The end goal is perhaps a 2050 equity target in transport, where all contexts 'contract and
converge' to a common level of emissions of around 0.5 tCO2 per capita, drawing on the
framework developed by Meyer (2000), and taken up by the IPCC (2007) and Stern (2009).
