Sustainable transport and the city - Transport Climate Change and the City - page 326

A key argument is that technological change may not be as forthcoming as many protagonists
imagine, and, perhaps more likely, that it may not be particularly well-tailored to the
environmental imperative; as it may even encourage more travel, with a large rebound effect,
even though per km travel is less resource consumptive. The techno-optimist approach holds
great store that Moore's Law 2 will apply in transport (i.e. in rapidly lowering vehicle emissions
and improving fuel efficiency), similar to the trends experienced in computer hardware design.
But the evidence is not supportive, as the curve of technological progress, and particularly
market take up in vehicle technologies, is not exponential and never seems to fully deliver
against societal expectations. There is always a 'complexity brake ' 3 or unexpected directions
are taken, and the transport system is one that is slow to react to change. Technological
developments are rarely targeted at solving the problems of city life, or travel behaviours, as
might be intended, and they can often act to accentuate them. Innovations are more usually
driven by the profit motive in organisations and there are often mismatches between any
requirements to address broader societal objectives.
Relative to the IIS scenarios, environmental stewardship is seen as a more important
dimension to emphasise. The case studies hence more explicitly explore the importance of
reducing mobility (particularly by car, petrol- or diesel-based), the level of stewardship in
governance terms, and the implications of this for individual and societal behaviours. This
highlights the critical question in low carbon transport analysis: whether mobility can continue
along the same pathway as now and simply travel by cleaner modes of transport (the dominant
governmental line), or whether levels of mobility also have to be reduced. Again this seems
a fairly fundamental problem to address, yet it is not well understood, largely because the
political implications of widespread demand management. The effective management of traffic
growth and of realising traffic reduction are rarely on the agenda. This dichotomy is thus very
revealing, yet it is also a little disingenuous, as technological change and behavioural change
(and environmental stewardship) are very closely linked, as illustrated by the availability of
new car technologies and ways in which consumers might purchase and make use of them.
Marguerite: Sometimes you have a dream. And you get involved, you believe in it, you
love it. In the morning, when you open your eyes, the two worlds are still confused.
The brilliance of the light blurs the faces of the night. You'd like to remember, you'd
like to hold them back. But they slip between your fingers, the brutal reality of day
drives them away. What did I dream about you ask yourself? What was it happened?
Who was I kissing? Who did I love? What was I saying and what was I told? Then you
find you're left with a vague regret for all those things that were or seemed to have
been. You no longer know what it was that was there all around you. You no longer
know.
King: I no longer know what was there all around me. I know I was part of a world,
and this world was all about me. I know it was me and what else was there, what else?
[. . .]
The disappearance of the windows, the doors and the walls, the King and the throne
must be very marked, but happen slowly and gradually. The King sitting on his throne
should remain visible for a short time before fading into a kind of mist.
Eugène Ionesco, Exit the King , (1967, pp. 89, 95)