Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
as fuel duties, subsidies and prices are all taken by national governments; vehicle fleets may
be imported from overseas markets; and many of the environmental standards are set by
international agencies. Cities that are extended or built almost from scratch can be constructed
in ways that are much less transport intensive. The way cities are built and retrofitted - including
the walking and cycling provision, levels of public transport and provision of parks and open
space - will determine people's travel behaviours for decades to come (PeƱalosa, 2011). Hence,
transport planning becomes critical to the achievement of sustainability at the city level.
The previous case study chapters have attempted to explore these issues, with an emphasis
on long-term change, the potential for the development of innovative scenarios, the discussion,
and in the end achievement, of desirable low carbon futures. There are multiple future pathways,
even within each city or jurisdiction, but perhaps there are some 'meta narratives', that
effectively capture some of the major directions possible. All of the case studies used workshops
with local experts and wider stakeholders to develop their understanding of local trends,
problems, opportunities, and potential future scenarios. They examined similar timescales,
either to 2030 or 2041. The elaborations of scenarios were different in detail, but often covered
common ground. The analysis had a different emphasis to the Foresight Programme Intelligent
Infrastructure Systems (IIS) study (Department for Trade and Industry and Office of Science
and Technology, 2006) in that technological developments were not the central focus of
attention. We utilised a very wide range of policy measures that may affect travel in future
years, including the development of low-emission vehicles and alternative fuels, but also larger
investments in public transport, walking and cycling, the built environment and also traffic
demand management measures. A key message is of the importance of the integrated approach
- relying on a narrow set of policy measures does not result in any significant reduction in
transport CO2 emissions. The case study scenarios are brought together in Figure 8.3 with
common dimensions - of technological change and environmental stewardship - to highlight
the common choices that many contexts face.
Technological Change:
High
Scenario 2: Clean Hyper Mobility
Increased mobility, but using low
emission vehicles.
Scenario 4: Sustainable Mobility
Huge investment and take up in
public transport, walking and
cycling; and low emission vehicles;
urban planning.
Environmental
Stewardship: Low
Environmental
Stewardship: High
Scenario 1: BAU
Incremental policy change, no
strategic direction; limited
investment in public transport,
walking and cycling and low
emission vehicles.
Scenario 3: More Active Travel
Large investment in walking and
cycling, urban planning and some
limited investment in public
transport, particularly in intra-
urban connections.
Technological Change:
Low
Figure 8.3 Meta narratives in transport
 
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