Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
changes made if necessary. This latter iterative element is often omitted from transport
analysis. Scenarios should not be rigid and inflexible, but they should be adaptable to
external and other changes such as innovations (Eriksson and Weber, 2006). The label
attached to each scenario is also important to improve resonance. These need to be
memorable, and perhaps inspirational, and the details of each scenario should help demark
the differences in each potential future.
7
There are many different approaches to scenario building, and its methodological flexibility
is a real strength. Many societal problems can be examined by combining suitable elements
of the basic approaches outlined previously.
The underlying rationale we have used for examining longer term futures through scenario
building is the need to tackle climate change and sustainability in its widest context. There is
a fundamental dilemma between increasing the complexity of the problem and the need to
communicate simplicity in the message if changes are to take place that are acceptable both
politically and publicly. Hence the concentration on the CO2 reduction target in London, Delhi
and Jinan, and a richer, more complete set of climate change and sustainability objectives in
Oxfordshire and Auckland. As in all planning strategies, there is a balanced judgement to be
made between the need to be aware that progress against one indicator (such as CO2 reduction)
may lead to adverse problems, or knock-on effects, against other indicators. This is a central
problem in sustainability, as the three pillars (economic, environmental and social; and some-
times governance and cultural objectives are also added) very often lead in different directions.
This tension, and the framing of the discussion, is central to effective communication between
the participants, their engagement and the ownership they might take over the implementation
of the necessary actions.
It is also very difficult to convey the message about the immediacy and the need for sub-
stantial actions now. Both the timing and scale of the climate change imperative have been
underestimated, and there is still a strong belief in technological solutions to what are essentially
social problems. Scenarios are successful in getting people to think about the longer term
issues and the consequences of taking (or not taking) actions, and many of the key actors are
prepared to take an active role in thinking about the 'desirable' future city. Understanding the
city in 2030 or 2050 is an important step, but the pathways are also crucial. There needs to
be a timeline that traces when particular decisions need to be taken and by whom, so that the
pathway from the present situation to the future is mapped out. This pathway is likely to
change over time, but it is necessary so that important decisions are taken with a sufficient
lead time. Part of the new thinking is that difficult decisions that have a major impact on the
future patterns of low carbon mobility should be taken quickly, rather than postponed. Carbon
budgets and interim targets, alongside end state targets, can help here. In the past too much
thinking has been focused on the short-term future and the resolution of more immediate
problems, rather than thinking more prospectively over a longer term. Policy-making hence
tends to be incremental and avoids issues that are deemed 'difficult'.
In addition, transport investment has to be much more supportive of city design than it has
in the recent past, and it needs to be much more explicitly linked to supporting the city more
generally through contributing to its viability (economy), vitality (environmental) and vibrancy
(social). Many of these issues are not unique to sustainability and futures studies, as they
illustrate a fundamental problem in the way in which scientific research engages with policy
actions and outcomes (Banister, 2008; Schwanen et al., 2011). At present there is a major
'implementation gap'. The means by which knowledge is translated into policy measures is
extremely weak. It is left to the decision-makers, many of whom are unaware of the latest
