Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Below the two potential 'non-BAU' scenarios (Scenarios 2 and 3) are developed in more
detail, with example impacts considered against CO2 and also across a wider MCA framework.
Scenario 1: BAU motorisation
This scenario is a continuation of current historical trends, a 'business as usual' projection,
with motorisation levels continuing at current levels, and little progress being made in moving
towards a low emission vehicle fleet and limited investment in public transit, walking and
cycling.
Scenario 2: clean mobility
The 'clean mobility' scenario (
Table 7.3
) envisages very radical progress to be made in the
vehicle fleet, with much reduced car and LCV (light commercial vehicle) emissions, though
mobility levels are not reduced, indeed continue to increase. The average private car vehicle
fleet emits around 95 gCO2/km by 2041, hence around the level of the current best hybrid
and diesel vehicle technologies. More progress could be made by 2041. For example, the King
Review (2008) in the UK recommends a target of 100 gCO2/km in the EU new car fleet by
2020. The vehicle fleet in New Zealand is, however, relatively old, including a large number
of second-hand cars from Japan. Hence this scenario would represent a major step forward
in new vehicle technology penetration into the vehicle fleet, and much less reliance on a
Table 7.3
Scenario 2 'clean mobility'
Policy package
Level of application
Summary specification
PP1 Low-emission
High
95 gCO2/km average car fleet, relative to the
vehicles
current average car fleet of 235 gCO2/km; and
800 gCO2/km average HCV fleet, relative to the
current average HCV fleet of 1,100 gCO2/km
PP2 Alternative fuels
Low
Minimal use of alternative fuel, car and LCV
(80% petrol, 20% diesel), HCV (95% diesel,
5% LPG), bus (95% diesel, 5% biofuel)
SCENARIO RESULTS (relative to BAU 2041)
*
Absolute
Percentage
Climate: carbon dioxide emission reduction
-2.84 MtCO2
-34.6%
(tonnes CO2)
2.4 tonnes CO2 per capita (2041) relative to BAU
of 3.8 tCO2 per capita (assumed aggregate BAU in
2041 is 8.03 MtCO2)
Economy: daily junction delay (aggregate seconds)
No change
No change
Local environment: particulate matter
No change
No change
Safety: road fatalities (number of fatalities)
No change
No change
Note
:
*
Modelling results, 2012. The modelling is based on individual model runs for each level of application of a policy
package. MCA indicator impacts are derived from travel distance, mode share and speed outputs, and are illustrated with
the INTRA-SIM Auckland simulation model. Additivity is assumed between packages. Clearly this omits potential super-
additivity (synergy) and sub-additivity (double counting) effects. This is an area for further research by the study team in
terms of developing approaches to optimising the packaging process. Initial thoughts on synergies are given in Hickman
et al. (2009b).
