Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Key trends and uncertainties
Population growth and immigration;
Economic growth rate (GDP);
Globalisation, international trade and movement;
Income levels, income inequality;
Tourism and leisure industry growth;
Age profile (ageing population);
Social equity, inclusion of minority groups;
Energy and power supply - renewable sources;
Climate change;
Major environmental shocks - earthquake, drought, flooding, water supply;
Improvement in environmental and urban quality;
Environmental issues - stewardship, extent of 'seriousness' given to them in policy-
making and implementation, levels of funding for non-road;
Urban design quality; extent of urban sprawl;
Clean vehicle technologies, electric vehicle penetration rate (#1);
Progress towards sustainable travel, level of investment in public transport, walking and
cycling (#2);
Continuing extent of car dependency (#3).
A central scenario
The perceived key issues are used as the polarities of the 'trilemma' as given in Figure 7.13 ,
which shows the possiible space within which the scenarios can be developed. There is a
similar emphasis in the Auckland scenarios to those used in the Oxfordshire context, perhaps
reflecting the high level of car usage in both contexts. The scenario axis and labelling, however,
are slightly different, reflecting a different discussion in the workshop sessions.
ICE Petrol Car
Dependency
SCENARIO 1: BAU
MOTORISATION
SCENARIO 2: CLEAN
MOBILITY
SCENARIO 3:
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Public Transit,
Active Modes
Clean Vehicle
Technologies
Figure 7.13 Future scenario 'trilemma'
 
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