Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
The current mode share in the Auckland region (2007-11) is a major contributor to the
high levels of CO2 emissions, even when considered in terms of trip stages rather than main
mode, as 80 per cent of travel is by car or van driver (including 26 per cent by car or van as
a passenger), 15 per cent pedestrians, one per cent cycling, and three per cent public transport
(Ministry of Transport, 2012). Expected traffic growth to 2041 is also significant, with some
difficulty in maintaining existing service levels, let alone improvements, unless transport
investment is made. If projected demands, reflecting an increased population and urban
dispersal, are loaded onto a 2006 network, it is expected that daily trips by car will rise by
153 per cent, public transport by 240 per cent and active travel trips by 157 per cent. Vehicle
km travelled would rise by 142 per cent (Auckland Regional Transport Authority, 2009).
Achieving the national CO2 reduction targets in Auckland (and by implication achieving
deep reductions in CO2 emissions in New Zealand) hence seems a long way off in the current
context. This is similar, of course, to experience in many other cities and countries. The
'conditions' for the national target of a 20 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 are
instructive. Global agreement must set the world on a pathway to limit a temperature rise to
not more than 2°C, and developed countries must make comparable efforts to those of New
Zealand, with major emitting countries taking action that is fully commensurate with their
respective capacities. All of these factors imply that New Zealand is unlikely to act unless all
countries do, at least those in the industrialised West. Countries are very wary of unilateral
action, mindful that they may somehow reduce their 'economic competitiveness'. Yet continued
inaction is surely to prove more expensive in the long run, and not only in financial terms.
The UN expert review team reports that there is no plan for achieving at least two thirds
of the stated national target for New Zealand (Utley et al., 2011; United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, 2011). The scale of change required in travel behaviours
hence is not being appreciated, and waiting for international agreement or coordinated action
is unlikely to bear fruit. For many contexts such as New Zealand and Auckland, the targets
being adopted are little more than 'aspirational', even where supposed (and well-reading)
'strategies' are seemingly in place.
A number of scenario development studies have been developed for Auckland, and indeed
more widely for New Zealand; for example, those from Oram (2009) and Landcare Research
(2007). The scenarios developed tend to be for society as a whole, and not particularly transport-
focused. Hence, for the purpose of examing what might happen in the transport sector, transport-
specific scenarios for Auckland are developed below. These follow the classic approach, based
around likely trends and uncertainties. They cover economic, socio-demographic, environmental
and technological issues, and there is some overlap in the issues with previous case studies:
many of the factors that are likely to affect travel behaviours are common across contexts.
The main trends and uncertainties for Auckland were identified in dicussion with local
academics and policy officers, so there is a level of participation in deriving the key issues,
and these are as listed below. The most important issues for Auckland were seen as the potential
emergence of new vehicle technologies, levels of funding available and priorities taken in
investment (translated as investment in sustainable modes), and continued extent of car
dependence.
