Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Transport and city building in China have important implications globally, largely because of
the huge size of the population, but also the scale of the travel and CO2 emissions involved,
and increasingly in the innovations that are being developed. Building a low carbon transport
system in China is an immense task, but also a great opportunity. At one level China can
learn the lessons from experience in the West, but maybe the Chinese will simply prove more
effective strategists, with a greater focus on societal gain, and also have the available funds
to implement major projects. The history of urban development in China suggests that once
again new and leading practices may emerge, that urban reconstruction can occur at the grand
scale, with a strong administrative lead, often involving breathtaking speed and involving
great economic and social complexity (Ma, 2009). Strategic urban planning may be pursued
more strongly, and become more progressive in approach, in the coming years in China relative
to countries such as the UK, New Zealand (see the following chapter), or in the US, where
the neo-liberal approach to governance has become strong, and efforts to control the location
and form of development are somehow framed as 'anti-competitive'.
Scenario analysis provides us with an indication of what futures might be possible given
current trends and potential uncertainties (
Table 6.10
)
. Scenarios, with a quantitative
underpinning, take us beyond the generic policy objectives in sustainable transport to show
the potential changes possible in distance by mode, vehicle emissions, motorisation rates and
resulting transport CO2 emissions under different intervention strategies. Significant growth
is expected in car ownership and use in Jinan, and the mode share by distance of bus and
NMT is likely to fall from current levels. However, an effective sustainable transport strategy
is also likely to include the following features over the period 2010-2030:
•
Car distance travelled remains at levels similar to those found today (Scenario 4) rather
than a potential increase of over 500 per cent (Scenario 1) on current levels; bus and
NMT distance each increase by around 170 per cent and e-bikes by 400 per cent or more.
•
Motorisation levels are kept to under 250 vehicles/1,000, rather than the US-type levels
of 600+/1,000, with use of vehicle registration and pricing mechanisms (such as increased
cost of car ownership and use) and car parking supply restraint.
•
Private car use, where used, is clean with average car emissions at below 100 gCO2/km.
•
Mode shares for NMT are maintained at around 20 per cent, bus at 20 per cent and
e-bikes at 20 per cent, with the car below 40 per cent.
•
Transport emissions increase to the threshold of 0.5 tonnes CO2 per capita by 2030.
To achieve the aspirations of Scenario 4 will mean the building of an extensive BRT system,
and the building of an urban structure with higher densities around the public transport network.
Sustainable travel is possible if the transport investments are combined with a polycentric
style of development undertaken within Jinan but also regionally across Shandong province,
with connections by HSR to the main cities in China. There is also likely to be some form
of restriction of vehicle ownership and use (either through a registration scheme or pricing)
and substantial investment in the e-bike and walking and cycling environment. The motor
industry also has a critical role in designing and supplying low-emission vehicles at a market
price that is cheaper than the petrol equivalents. These types of futures can help overcome
associated problems with congestion, traffic safety and local air pollution.
It is important to achieve changed travel behaviours that do not follow the North American
and to some extent the Beijing model (Scenario 1). Flexible and positive outcomes need to
