Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 6.8
Scenario 4 CO2 outputs
Scenario
Car
Bus
Motorcycle
Taxi
NMT
All
1990 (tonnes)
89,913
206,037
180,246
155,621
-
631,818
1990 per capita
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.03
-
0.12
(tonne/person)
2005 (tonnes)
524,900
345,100
306,400
246,900
-
1,423,300
2005 per capita
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.04
-
0.22
(tonne/person)
2010 (tonnes)
2,441,233
484,400
246,914
285,284
-
3,457,830
2010 per capita
0.36
0.07
0.04
0.04
-
0.51
(tonne/person)
S4 2030 (tonnes)
1,835,418
1,277,284
1,035,962
323,717
-
4,472,381
S4 2030 per capita
0.22
0.16
0.13
0.04
-
0.54
(tonne/person)
S4 1990-2030
70,202,861
23,111,032
15,425,203
10,547,189
-
119,286,285
aggregate
(tonnes)
Proportion of
22%
26,604,791
2030 budget used
by 2010
Note
: These two scenario visions for Jinan in 2030 give contrasting views of the potential pathways that can be followed,
one based on BAU (High Motorisation) with transport-related emissions levels reaching nearly 2 tCO2 per person and the
other (Good Intentions) reaching a level of 0.54 tCO2 per person. These differences are substantial and demonstrate the
potential for a decarbonisation of the transport sector at the city level, even in situations where huge growth is taking place
in levels of personal mobility. To keep CO2 emissions at these lower levels requires a continuous and committed set of
policy actions across a wide range of sectors, including transport, land use and development, technology and pricing. The
options available, together with comments on the scale and timing needed for effective implementation, are now presented.
Jinan is also investing in public transport. It has one of the most extensive BRT networks in
China and will add six more lines to the current BRT network, with plans for a 50-km network.
Jinan aims to have 20 buses per 100,000 persons, and a mode share for public transport of
30 per cent by 2015 (Jinan Municipal Government, 2011). Further policy options can also be
used in Jinan, including economic policy instruments such as differentiating parking fees,
congestion charging, and policies to encourage the purchase of electric and hybrid cars for
private users, investment in public transport and facilities for cycling and walking. The plans
are for Jinan to become a model city focusing on electric vehicles, public transport, walking
and cycling, and this will require a very strong policy-making approach, with a clear future
vision, and the leadership and resources necessary for effective implementation.
Policy interventions and assumptions within Scenario 4
Some of the important policy interventions within Scenario 4 are explored in more detail
below, grouped into a number of policy areas or packages, but within each of these are many
individual measures. It is acknowledged that individual policies will have only limited impact
when challenging CO2 reduction targets, and it is only when they are combined in mutually
supporting packages that they will have any real impact. The policy packages themselves need
to be grouped together to maximise their effectiveness (Banister et al., 2000; Hickman et al.,
