Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Scenario 4: 'good intentions'
The 'good intentions' scenario assumes a much reduced level of motorisation, with a high
level of migration, development and investment, including a very high level of environmental
stewardship. The conventional petrol car is much less dominant, with a highly effective and
wide-ranging policy approach to reduce potential traffic growth. Public transport, walking and
cycling investment is high, with pricing mechanisms used to reduce the use of the private car.
Car use is restricted to clean and small, light vehicles. Target and budgetary CO2 analysis is
shown in
Table 6.8
and
Figure 6.18
. Within this scenario, transport CO2 emissions rise from
1.42 MtCO2 in 2005 to 4.47 MtCO2 in 2030 - there is still an increase in emissions, but
much less than in the BAU scenario. Motorisation rates are much lower, moving from
72 vehicles/1,000 population (2005) to 260/1,000 population (2030), less even than European
levels. The result would be a reduced increase in per person transport emissions, from 0.22
tonnes/person in 2005 to 0.54 tonnes/person in 2030 (and relative to 1.98 tonnes/person under
BAU). Mode share distance travelled by car hence rises more slowly, from 11 per cent to
38 per cent, bus rises slightly from 16 per cent to 20 per cent, and NMT declines to a lesser
degree from 48 per cent to 38 per cent over the period 2005-2030. Car emissions are assumed
to reach 92 gCO2/km by 2030, relative to 178 gCO2/km in 2005, and motorcycle usage is
also much cleaner at 8 gCO2/km from 50 gCO2/km in 2005, largely consisting of e-bikes
and motorycles. There has been a major effort to make motorised travel much cleaner.
This very ambitious scenario still does not achieve the 45 per cent reduction in intensity
target. Relative to 2005 levels, CO2/GDP intensity rises by 31.7 per cent. Hence again we
can see the difficulty of achieving the target, as this would require an even higher GDP growth
rate and/or a more formidable reduction in transport CO2 emission growth rate.
Shanghai provides more of a model for this type of high growth, high environmental
stewardship future, with commonalities also found in some of the progressive European cities.
Since the early 1990s Shanghai has experienced tremendous developmental growth and
infrastructure investment. The registration of new vehicles (cars and trucks) has been capped
at 50,000 annually since 1998. The registration of mopeds (under 50 cc) has also been capped
since 1996, and scooters and motorcycles (over 50 cc) have been banned from the city centre.
Two-wheelers powered by batteries are unrestricted. From 1991 to 1996 nearly 15 per cent
of the city GDP was spent on infrastructure, an unprecedented amount, amounting to over
£10 billion and including a new ring road, two major bridges and the first line of a metro
system. Car ownership is limited by keeping the acquisition of a driving licence expensive.
A driving school costs US$500 to attend, which is expensive for residents, involving classroom
sessions, behind the wheel training and three road tests. A typical car also costs around
US$10,000, with a 10 per cent sales tax and, historically, a large registration fee at US$20,000
per vehicle. This latter fee was scrapped in 1998, and a vehicle registration auction created
(with a fee of US$2,500) which is used to limit the number of new vehicles, similar to the
scheme in Singapore. New road infrastructure has also been limited, but there is a dense urban
structure conducive to walking, cycling and public transport usage (Zhou and Sperling, 2001;
Darido et al., 2009).
Even though Jinan continues to focus on rapid economic growth in 2011-2015, it also
stresses innovation and environmental sustainability in economic development. Jinan is one
of the pilot cities that encourages battery and hybrid vehicles in public transport. In 2010 there
were 200 hybrid and battery buses in operation in Jinan and five battery charging stations.
Jinan added 800 battery buses and public vehicles in 2011, and 1,610 in 2012. By the end
of 2015, Jinan is expected to have 100,000 battery or hybrid public vehicles in operation.
