Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
1
More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter
hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.
(Woody Allen, 'My Speech to the Graduates', 1979, lines 1-6)
Cities are undergoing a renaissance, with a huge growth in urban population, including the
emergence of the 'megacity' (over 10 million population), the 'metacity' (over 20 million
population) and the 'megacity region' (with an aggregate population over 80 million). Examples
can be seen in Japan (Tokyo to Nagoya and Osaka), in China (the Pearl River Delta), and in
Brazil (São Paulo to Rio de Janeiro). In 1900, about 13 per cent of the global population was
urban, but by 2000 this proportion was 47 per cent, and the 50 per cent threshold was reached
in 2007 when 3.3 billion people became 'urban'. By 2030, the 60 per cent (4 billion) threshold
will be crossed, and by 2050 nearly 70 per cent (6 billion) of the global population (9 billion)
will be living in urban areas. This enormous urban growth is fuelled by population growth,
longer lives and migration into the city. And the dynamics of urbanisation will change as the
population will be young and active. Cities will provide the main sources of employment in
manufacturing and service provision, the centres of social interaction, and the new growth
in the knowledge economy and the networked society.
The traditional notions of work, as being construed by a 35-hour week and by 40 years of
commitment to one employer, have already effectively been replaced. The new forms of work
are much more flexible, with people moving around between different jobs, with hours to suit
their own needs, and with time taken out to learn new skills or to raise a family. Gender
barriers are being broken down - now the dads are dropping the children off at school (to
some extent) - and home working has and will increasingly become the norm for a growing
proportion of the population. Both work and leisure are becoming organised around the web
in its many manifestations. All of these emerging trends, and more, have an impact on travel
behaviours, and the way that we plan for transport systems in cities.
The cities that adapt to this new knowledge and network-based environment are the ones
that will prosper, with tradition counting for little as labour becomes ever more mobile. In
addition to being the centres of work, cities will retain their positions as centres of government,
finance, education and culture, as this is where decisions will be made that affect the next
stages in the increasingly globalised markets. The larger and multinational companies may
still influence many aspects of life, but it is likely that the process of governance will evolve,
as decision-making revolves increasingly around the power of the Internet. Small scale coalitions
may form to address particular strategic challenges affecting resource use in cities, such as
