Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
rises to North American levels (up to 800 vehicles/1,000p) then the space required and
environmental consequences will be on a scale not seen anywhere before in the world (CAI-
Asia et al., 2009). Continued growth in motorisation is almost inevitable, but the rate of growth
and level of saturation can vary markedly according to policy direction. A massive slowdown
in urban highway investment is required if environmental and city liveability goals are to be
achieved. The decision-making process in China is strongly centralised and major innovations
can take place in a relatively short period of time. The opportunity for China to lead the
rapidly developing countries in a new direction that embraces sustainable transport is possible,
but that opportunity needs to be taken.
The Chinese car manufacturing industry is one of the most rapidly growing in the world,
largely serving domestic consumption, and includes leading firms such as FAW-Volkswagen
(First Automotive Works), Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai GM, Chery, FAW Toyota,
Dongfeng Nissan, and Guangzhou Honda. An increasing number of the emerging Chinese
middle class would like to adopt the lifestyles and travel behaviours that are high in energy
consumption and CO2 emissions, consistent with the 'industrialised' model. The current and
potential scale of growth is, however, very different to the West, as more new vehicles are
sold in China than anywhere else in the world. China has overtaken the US to become the
biggest car market in the world, with the sale of nearly 20 million vehicles in 2010. This is
a primary driver for China's increasing demand for oil; over half of China's oil consumption
is currently imported, and this could rise to 75 per cent by 2030 (Zhao, 2011).
Motorisation has resulted from population and income growth, and been supported by
economic reforms, with private vehicle usage growing at rapid rates. Motor traffic in Shanghai,
Beijing, Guangzhou and other large cities is already severely congested. Non-motorised
transport was unfortunately discouraged in the 1990s and early 2000s, with walking and
cycling viewed as 'out-dated' modes of travel. The Economic Planning Ministry announced
in the 1990s that it planned to see 'a private car for every family in China', reminiscent of
the earlier Fordist vision in the West. In Beijing the tree-lined median strips, which used to
separate bicycle paths from the motorised vehicle lanes, have been removed to make space
for additional vehicle lanes (Hook and Replogle, 1996), and this is symptomatic of attempts
to support motorisation. However, in recent years, there have been major efforts to introduce
more sustainable transport initiatives, particularly in cities such as Shanghai, including the
development of an extensive subway and other public transport systems. There is also increasing
investment in walking, cycling facilities and mass cycle-hire schemes; urban planning based
on 'eco-town' principles; and traffic management such as vehicle registration schemes and
the use of fuel economy standards. Beijing remains a much more car dependent city than
Shanghai, so there are different developmental paths being followed, but even in Beijing there
are major investments in public transport being considered and implemented. The projected
growth in motorisation, however, remains rapid across all major urban areas in China. Avoiding
the move towards carbon intensive travel - based on the ICE petrol and steel car - will be
extremely difficult.
Some of the trends are explored below (and illustrated in
Figure 6.8
). Within major urban
areas in China, overall trips are growing at over 5 per cent per annum, higher than population
growth and just below income growth. Vehicle km travelled is increasing at around 10 per
cent per annum, with some cities experiencing higher growth (Beijing and Shanghai at over
15 per cent per annum). Non-motorised travel continues to decline in favour of public and
private motorised travel. All of the major cities still have large mode shares for cycling by
trip, Jinan at around 40 per cent, but the shares are declining rapidly. There are large implications
related to this dramatic change in mode, particularly if viewed in terms of the loss, or at least
