Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 5.5
Transport CO2 emissions total and per capita levels
Baseline and projection
Transport
CO2 emissions
Population
Transport
emissions
% increase
(millions)
CO2 emissions
CO2 (tonnes)
on 1990
per capita
(tCO2/capita)
1990
3,121,711
0%
8.2
0.38
2004
6,146,650
97%
14.8
0.42
2010
8,574,411
175%
17.5
0.49
S1:
2030 BAU
26,298,176
742%
26.0
1.01
S2:
Lower carbon emission
19,711,039
531%
26.0
0.76
motor vehicles
S3:
Increased active transport
12,629,030
305%
26.0
0.49
S4:
Sustainable transport
9,459,179
203%
26.0
0.36
Table 5.6
Travel distance per year (billion km)
Baseline and
Car
SUV
Bus
Rail
HGV
Walk
Bicycle
M/C
M/C
Total
projection
2-W
3-W
2004
14.2
1.2
46.5
9.5
0.4
8.7
10.6
20.4
3.9
115.4
2010
22.8
3.2
50.1
10.2
0.6
9.4
11.4
30.0
5.5
143.0
2030 Scenario 1
97.3
19.5
74.4
37.9
2.7
12.0
10.1
74.4
6.8
335.0
(BAU)
2030 Scenario 2
97.3
19.5
74.4
37.9
2.7
12.0
10.1
74.4
6.8
335.0
2030 Scenario 3
32.4
1.6
84.4
50.7
1.8
16.0
44.6
32.7
6.8
271.0
2030 Scenario 4
32.4
1.6
84.4
50.7
1.8
16.0
44.6
32.7
6.8
271.0
Note
: SUV = Sports Utility Vehicle; HGV = Heavy Goods Vehicle; M/C 2-W = Motor Cycle Two Wheeler; M/C 3-W
= Motor Cycle Three Wheeler; Total = billion km per year.
for Delhi, being strong enough to outmanoeuvre the road and vehicle lobby, who would push
for a much higher level of motorisation. There may be less economic gain, in terms of the
narrow GDP definition, and there would need to be a redefinition of the understanding of
'societal growth'. The quality of life and promotion of individual capabilities and achievement
all become much more central to the definition of progress than GDP growth or consumption
(Jackson, 2009; Sen, 2009). Policy changes would need to be dramatic, requiring a 'high-
intensity' implementation and effectiveness of all measures, including the monitoring and
enforcement of the key measures. An effective governance framework is critical, moving away
from the tendency for neo-liberalist support of vested interests in the motor industry and
development sector towards one that promotes community values so that equity and
environmental objectives can be met.
The key transport outputs for each scenario are illustrated in
Tables 5.5
and
5.6
and also
in
Figures 5.20
-
5.22
(aggregate and per capita transport CO2 emissions; mode share by
distance), all using a future year date of 2030.
