Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
lifestyle, including the attractions of the motor car. This is similar also for the domestic Indian
motor industry, strongly supported by trade organisations such as the Society of Indian
Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). The view is that the West has had a period of consumption
that many in Asia would like to follow. The experience and mistakes of the West, however,
can be noted and the lessons learnt, including that excessive use of the car leads to a poor
urban fabric, low levels of quality of life in cities and very large per capita and aggregate
CO2 emissions.
The estimates from the available data are that the transport sector produces around 46
per cent of total CO2 emissions and road transport contributes to 95 per cent of this (Dhamija,
2012). Passenger road transport CO2 emissions in Delhi are expected to rise from around
to 0.4 tonnes CO2 per person (2004) rising to 1.0 tonnes CO2 per person (2030). These
numbers are, of course, estimates and are uncertain. Much of the growth is driven by rapid
projected mobility growth, including rises in vehicle ownership and use (Hickman et al., 2008;
Saxena, 2012). Current transport policies in Delhi do not attempt to limit the growth in
vehicular traffic to any degree, though there are attempts to improve the quality of public
transport provision with Metro and bus rapid transit.
No governmental targets have been adopted for reducing projected transport CO2 emissions
in India or Delhi.Under the Kyoto Protocol, India's commitments do not involve a numerical
CO2 growth limitation, simply an agreement to monitor emissions. The UN agreed to a set
of a 'common but differentiated responsibilities', in that:
•
The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has
originated in developed countries;
•
Per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
•
The share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their
social and development needs.
Hence India, and other developing countries including China, share only a 'monitoring'
responsibility, alongside a more general agreed 'common responsibility' that all countries have
a role to play in reducing emissions. The Copenhagen Accord Pledge (January 2010) for India
is to reduce its carbon intensity. This refers to the amount of carbon emissions for each unit
of economic output, measured in gross domestic product (GDP). The level of carbon intensity
reduction is 20-25 per cent by 2020. This allows for economic growth, and reduces CO2 output
on a relative basis. The level of target reduction is smaller than China's commitment (40-45
per cent). Delhi's GDP is approximately US$58 billion in 2010, and assuming the GDP growth
rate continuing at around 8 per cent, this means a GDP in 2020 of around US$125 billion. If
the 25 per cent reduction in carbon intensity is met, this still means that transport emissions
can rise from 2010 levels of around 8.5 MtCO2 to 13.9 MtCO2 (a growth of 162 per cent),
assuming that transport plays a 'fair share' contribution against the intensity target. Hence in
a rapidly rising economy, the intensity rate is fairly unrestrictive when translated into transport
emissions. This has been the rationale behind India's choice of target metric. The country is
rising from a very low level of emissions relative to Western levels, hence will be allowed to
develop the economy, but at a slightly improved intensity level in terms of CO2 emissions.
Certainly an 'end state' target reduction in CO2 emissions as found in London would be highly
