Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 4.6
Clean mobility or satisficing with technology
Policy package
Level of application
Summary specification
PP12 Low-emission
High (car/LGV)
A total car/LGV fleet at an average of
vehicles
95gCO2/km and HGVs (fully loaded)
at 800gCO2/km.
High (HGV)
PP13 Alternative fuels
Medium
Increase in car dieselisation and much greater
uptake of biofuels across modes - car 25% diesel
(from 15%), 60% petrol, 15% alternative fuels
(mix of LPG, electric, biofuel); HGV 75% diesel
(from 100%), 25% alternative fuels; bus 60%
diesel (from 100%), 40% alternative fuels.
No hydrogen in 'medium' level application.
SCENARIO RESULTS (relative to BAU 2030)
Absolute change
Per cent
Climate: carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction
-1,057,932
-37.4%
(tonnes CO2)
2.47 tonnes CO2 per capita (2030) relative to
BAU of 4.10 (assumed aggregate BAU in 2030
is 2,664,849 tonnes CO2)
Accessibility: improvement in accessibility to
0
0
town centres by rail (Hansen composite
households)
Economy: daily junction delay
0
0
(aggregate seconds)
Local environment: carbon monoxide (CO)
-4,281,762
-32.8%
(kgCO)
Safety: road fatalities (number of fatalities)
0
0
Note
: The modelling is based on individual model runs for each level of application of a policy package. MCA indicator
impacts are derived from travel distance, mode share and speed outputs. Additivity is assumed between packages.
successfully, but where strategic societal goals can still be met, in this case, to move towards
a low emission vehicle fleet. The current progress in moving towards low-emission vehicles
in the mass market is much too slow. The low-emission vehicle package by itself achieves a
major share of the potential reduction in CO2 emissions; hence it is extremely important to
the strategic CO2 reduction goal achievement.
The spatial distribution of CO2 emission also varies across the county. The dominant impact
of lower emissions from vehicles means that the largest relative reductions are seen in the
non-urban areas, namely in the villages and rural areas surrounding Oxford, where car
dependency is highest. Hence this is very much a policy scenario targeted at car users, and
the areas where car users are located. This equity dimension is poorly understood and very
much underplayed, as central government policy is currently primarily targeted at car users
(and by proxy higher income groups) in terms of relying on them to purchase more carbon
efficient vehicles. There is little significant wider investment in the non-car modes, which are
primarily, but not exclusively, used by lower income groups.
The wider sustainability impacts of the scenario are limited, with the exception of an
improvement in carbon monoxide (CO) (-32.8 per cent relative to BAU in 2030), largely due
