Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
likely to be very difficult to implement. There should also be some consideration of political
realism, in terms of what can be implemented in the political and public arenas. These
difficulties are soon apparent and it is clear that very considerable efforts are required across
the whole range of policy packages, if the strategic targets are to be met. A number of
conclusions can be drawn:
1
The current trends mean that the transport sector continues to perform poorly; it is the
one sector that is not contributing to cross-sectoral CO2 reduction targets. The clear
message here is that actions must work much more effectively across the broader range
of policy packages available, and at a much higher level of intensity relative to current
trends.
2
An optimised package of measures, targeted at achieving sustainable travel, may take us
a long way towards the 60 per cent CO2 reduction target for London. A caveat here is
that this assumes a successful level of application across a wide range of policy levers.
Large investment is required to move beyond a 10-20 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions,
and further thought is also required concerning deliverability and public acceptability
issues. Changed travel behaviours are notoriously difficult to encourage.
3
Low-emission vehicles and alternative fuel penetration are likely to remain very important
policy innovations, as they tackle carbon efficiency in the dominant mode of travel (the
private car). The main difficulty here is in achieving a significant level of penetration into
the mass market. The motor industry and government need to develop mechanisms to
achieve this, including mandatory targets for manufacturers. The 80 gCO2/km average
total car fleet could be developed as a mandatory target for an agreed future year such
as 2025. A correspondingly hard target can also be developed for light and heavy goods
vehicles. More thought is required as to what this means for particular manufacturers, but
business models should be capable of being maintained at greater carbon efficiency.
Indeed, the innovators here can gain competitive advantage in view of likely legislation.
4
The behavioural measures also offer great opportunities, including novel pricing regimes,
the increased use of public transport, walking and cycling, ecological driving and slower
speeds, and more efficient freight transport. Urban planning and smarter choice soft
measures, as well as acting in their own right, potentially perform very important roles
as supporting measures to other policy packages, enabling higher levels of success in
implementation. The analysis also shows the high interrelationships between supposedly
distinct technological and behavioural measures. Many options, for example the penetration
of low-emission vehicles into the vehicle fleet, involve technological dimensions (the
development of new car technologies) and behavioural change (changed consumer purchase
patterns). The technological-behavioural dichotomy is thus a little misleading and
distracting, as most actions require combinations of both.
5
Positive actions need to be more innovative as the headline targets are not being achieved
over time. For example, we may need to consider much more imaginative ideas, perhaps
including greater use of zero and low-emission vehicle zones, automatic low-speed city
driving systems, new forms of car use and ownership (building on the recent growth of
city car clubs and rental schemes), new forms of public transport to serve suburban areas,
substantial increases in walking and cycling (including Vélib'-style city schemes across
all urban areas), virtual mobility massively scaled up to reduce 'unnecessary' physical
travel, and a whole host of ideas we have yet to think through.
6
A major problem is the inconsistency in political support over time. As political
administrations change there is a tendency to revert back to support for road building and
