Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.7
Sustainable travel 'optimised balance'
Policy package
Comment
% of VIBAT
London target
by 2025
PP1 Low-emission vehicles
High: 100 gCO2/km car fleet; 800 gCO2/km
18.3%
heavy goods vehicles
PP2 Alternative fuels
Car low: (80% petrol, 20% diesel); Freight
2.0%
medium: (75% diesel, 5% LPG, 10% electric,
10% biofuel); Bus medium: (60% diesel, 5% LPG,
5% electric, 30% biofuel)
PP3 Pricing regimes
High: a London-wide emissions-based pricing
9.9%
scheme; medium parking charging
PP4 Public transport
High: investment strategy beyond even T2025
11.3%
Scenario 4; medium: fare reduction
PP5 Walking and cycling
High: investment strategy beyond T2025 Scenario 4,
2.1%
with an intensive network and facilities for active
travel
PP6 Urban planning
High: London Plan ++, assuming higher densities
3.9%
around key interchanges and local public realm
improvements
PP7 ICT
Medium: much greater application of the
1.0%
'network society' with the substitution effect and
reduced travel distances achieved
PP8 Smarter choice
Medium: T2025 Scenario 4 investment strategy,
1.6%
behavioural measures
reduction in car distance and mode shift to public
transport, walking and cycling
PP9 Slower speeds and
Medium: application of slower speed limits and
3.1%
ecological driving
behaviours on strategic routes and in residential
areas, changed driving styles
PP10 Long-distance travel
Medium: reduction in short haul air and substituted
substitution
by rail (though only within London travel considered,
hence minimal impact recorded here)
0.6%
PP11 Freight transport
High: reduction in freight travel distance and
more CO2 efficient behaviours
1.3%
Oil price
High: $140 a barrel
5.1%
Progress against VIBAT
60.3%
London target (60%
reduction in CO2 emissions)
Notes
: Modelling using TC-SIM London v.3.
1 Within the BAU for London, the T2025 Reference Case (Scenario 1) is normally used.
2 An 'additive' principle is mainly used in the modelling - assuming additive impacts between packages. A limited number
of synergetic packages were considered where modelling outputs were available - the interventions covered under T2025
analysis. The additive assumption potentially double counts (sub-additivity) in some areas and misses synergies (super-
additivity) in others.There are also issues concerning rebound effects. Much further consideration is required in terms
of understanding these types of interactions between package implementation.
3 This scenario assumes oil prices are at $140 a barrel by 2025, but sensitivity tests can be made with different prices
assumed.
