Ambitions towards sustainable mobility (London) - Transport Climate Change and the City - page 119

Table 3.6 More active travel

Policy package Comment % of VIBAT

London target
by 2025

PP1 Low-emission vehicles BAU -

PP2 Alternative fuels BAU -

PP3 Pricing regimes High 11.0%

PP4 Public transport Medium 5.1%

PP5 Walking and cycling Medium 1.1%

PP6 Urban planning Medium 1.8%

PP7 ICT Medium 1.0%

PP8 Smarter choice soft measures High 2.6%

PP9 Slower speeds and ecological driving High 4.9%

PP10 Long-distance travel substitution Medium 0.6%

PP11 Freight transport Medium 0.8%

Progress against VIBAT London target 28.9%

(60% reduction in CO2 emissions)

Note : Modelling using TC-SIM London v.3. Within the BAU for London, the T2025 Reference Case (Scenario 1) is
normally used.

Scenario 4 attempts to balance the risk, combining the best technological and behavioural
application of Scenarios 2 and 3 to deliver an approximate 60 per cent reduction in transport
CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels ( Table 3.7 ). It is, however, very optimistic about levels of
application and delivery of policy levers, and the attractiveness of the measures to, and implied
different travel behaviours from, the public. Serious attention is required in assessing the
obstacles to delivering changing behaviours and in improving the incentives for change.
London again develops with a strong emphasis on wide-ranging sustainability objectives,
including environmental, social and economic dimensions. Slowly, the importance of designing
the urban environment for less travel and efficient use of resources becomes more obvious.
There is a much greater focus on slower means of travel and less distances travelled (Banister,
2011). Over time, technology systems become essential to deliver carbon efficiency. Hence
multi-disciplinarity becomes very important - the wider impacts of acting in particular fields
are considered and synergies sought. For example, urban design also takes account of the
travel impacts of different design options and is articulated to achieve aesthetic objectives and
sustainable travel outcomes. Similarly ICT interventions are targeted towards achieving greater
sustainability in travel (rather than improved throughflow).
Within London, the central activity zone is an important centre for growth, but growth is
also concentrated in the suburbs, with local, polycentric growth, strengthening the former city
of villages. Societal benefits accrue from a society integrated more at the local level. People
are environmentally aware and more careful in their use of resources. This image is also market
driven, but has a much stronger social and environmental emphasis, and is focused on improving
the quality, rather than quantity, of life. The transition to the technological society is moderated
by greater social intervention. The economy is a knowledge-based economy, producing specialist
products for hi-tech businesses. It is accepted that behavioural change is the essential basis
needed to address the adopted CO2 emissions targets; however, technology is also important
- it is only the package that can deliver deep CO2 reduction cuts.
In the transport sector, the expectation is that there will be a slight reduction in the total
amount of travel distance by each person in 2025 and again to 2050, on baseline 2006 levels,