Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.5
Low-carbon driving
Policy package
Comment
% of VIBAT
London target
by 2025
PP1 Low-emission vehicles
High: 100 g/km car fleet;
18.3%
800 g/km heavy goods
vehicles
PP2 Alternative fuels
Medium
5.2%
PP3 Pricing regimes
BAU
0%
PP4 Public transport
BAU
0%
PP5 Walking and cycling
BAU
0%
PP6 Urban planning
BAU
0%
PP7 ICT
Medium
1%
PP8 Smarter choice soft measures
BAU
0%
PP9 Slower speeds and ecological driving
BAU
0%
PP10 Long-distance travel substitution
BAU
0%
PP11 Freight transport
BAU
0%
Progress against VIBAT London target
24.5%
(60% reduction in CO2 emissions)
Notes
: Modelling using TC-SIM London v.3. Within the BAU for London, the T2025 Reference Case (Scenario 1) is
normally used.
SCENARIO 3: MORE ACTIVE TRAVEL
Under this scenario, London develops with a stronger emphasis on environmental objectives
(
Table 3.6
). Economic and social considerations are still important, but they are not pursued
at the cost of environmental goals. The scenario is less optimistic about the potential
implementation of low carbon vehicles and alternative fuels, though delivers some gains here.
The majority of environmental gain is delivered through investment in public transport, walking
and cycling and smarter choice behavioural measures. The scenario achieves an approximate
29 per cent reduction in transport CO2 emissions by 2025.
The scale of technological implementation arguably assumes greater realism than in Scenario
2, reflecting more unimpressive penetration trajectories (achieving 140 gCO2/km car fleet,
900 gCO2/km heavy goods vehicles (fully loaded) and 4 per cent alternative fuels, mainly in
the freight and bus fleets, by 2025). Some gains are made in terms of implementing the
behavioural measures. Road pricing assumes the same scheme as currently operating - a limited
congestion charging scheme in central London only. Public transport investment is at a
'medium' level of application, representing the T2025 Scenario 4, Full Programme, and
includes major schemes such as Crossrail, and capacity and frequency upgrades on the
Underground, National Rail and Docklands Light Railway. Similarly, investment in walking
and cycling facilities and in the streetscape and public realm, together with effective urban
planning, makes active travel options much more attractive. Supportive investments are made
in smarter choice behavioural measures, slower speeds and ecological driving are encouraged
and freight transport is made more efficient in CO2 emission terms.
SCENARIO 4: SUSTAINABLE TRAVEL
Clearly the concern is in relying on a narrow range of options to deliver strategic goals.
Some may not deliver the expected gains, and there may be unintended or rebound effects.
