Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.4
Drivers of change
Emerging socio-demographic trends
Potential travel implications
•
Changing demographic and household structures
•
Steady increase in demand for
mobility - passengers and goods;
with periods of reduced growth
related to economic volatility
•
Ageing, yet more active population
•
Increasing world trade and globalisation
•
Economic volatility; including periods of financial collapse
and recovery
•
Increased trip distances in goods
movement; though partial reduction
through localised sourcing
•
Emergence of networked organisations, clusters and supply
chains
•
Rising importance of local provision (complex flows)
•
Gradual increase in share of low-
emission vehicles and use of
alternative fuels
•
Rapid technological developments and the emergence of
'digital natives' (the new generation growing up accustomed
to technology)
•
Huge growth in demand for public
transport, walking and cycling as
environmental and health benefits
become much more widely known
•
Greater discernment in choice of activities and consumer
purchases
•
Taxation increasingly based on resource consumption rather
than income
•
Much greater realisation of the
'Network Society' - electronic
flows replace part of physical
travel as well as opening up a new
range of social interactions
•
Decline in the power of national governments and distrust in
institutions (reduced ability to influence change)
•
Increasing awareness of sustainability issues and demand for
change
•
Gradual emergence of radical solutions to climate change
Source
: Drawn from the Department for Trade and Industry and Office of Science and Technology, 2006, with application
to London.
•
Scenario 3 - More active travel 2030
: achieves an approximate 32 per cent reduction in
transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. It is less optimistic about the potential
implementation of low carbon vehicles and relies more on public transport, walking and
cycling and smarter choice investment.
•
Scenario 3 - Sustainable travel 2030
: this scenario combines the best technological and
behavioural application of Scenarios 1 and 2 to deliver an approximate 60 per cent
reduction in transport CO2 emissions, on 1990 levels. It is very optimistic about levels
of application of policy levers.
Figure 3.24
illustrates the scenario matrix under a classic scenario 'dilemma'. Two of the
major themes from the drivers of change - in this case the extent of technological change and
behavioural change - are used to generate the axis of change. These were chosen, in discussion
with transport planners at Transport for London and also the expert panel in the VIBAT-
London study, to highlight the major problematic currently facing decision-makers in London
(and indeed the UK and industrialised West): whether the gains in vehicle efficiency can allow
us to remain as mobile as we are, and by use of a similar mode share, or whether travel
behaviours also need to change as well to reduce transport CO2 emissions.
SCENARIO 2: LOW CARBON DRIVING
Under this scenario, London is developed with a strong emphasis on technological change
(
Table 3.5
). The demand for transport remains strong and mobility continues to grow. There
is a ready acceptance of new technology, both in the home and the workplace, but particularly
