Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
The following concluding thoughts can be given:
1
The challenge of climate change is complex, and international efforts to gain political
momentum are not affecting the trends to any significant level. The irony of thousands
of delegates flying thousands of kilometres to talk about reducing CO2 emissions is
becoming all too clear.
2
National and city-based targets, on the other hand, have become very progressive at times,
but there is much inconsistency in approach and difficulty in the targets set. The use and
prioritisation of resources have changed in many contexts, yet the emphasis and levels of
investment required for a more sustainable transport future are still not being reached.
3
Many of the transport policy measures that are required are well-known, and have been
well-researched and developed over more than 30 years. Yet their potential levels of applica-
tion, likely contributions, and most effective packaging with wider measures are poorly
understood.
4
Other policy objectives beyond CO2 reduction are also critical in the development
of sustainable transport and urban planning, and MCA is a useful approach to use in
combination with scenario analysis. There is potential for positive co-benefits (such as
reduced CO2 and improved health impacts), but there are also negative impacts, perhaps
in terms of some low carbon pathways and economic or social equity dimensions. The
scale and diversity of these impacts and interrelationships are very poorly understood.
5
Finally, it is likely that governmental 'direction' can only take us so far, certainly in view
of tackling underlying trends. Hence participatory elements within the scenario process
will be critical. These governance issues are explored in the case study chapters, and they
form an essential element in successfully tackling climate change.
The approach developed in this chapter offers a very different approach to that used
conventionally in transport planning, with its basis in scenario building, and a strong emphasis
on working towards long-term futures, the quantification of scenarios, the usefulness of the
backcasting stage and also the need to include participatory methods. The transition to more
sustainable travel behaviours and wider sustainability in city lifestyles will require policy-
making beyond the 'muddling through' (Lindblom, 1979). Scenario analysis can help us here:
Porter (1985) suggests that we should use scenarios to help 'bet on the most probable one',
'bet on the best one', 'hedge so as to get satisfactory results under all scenarios', and to try
to 'raise odds' that the preferred scenario will occur. Some of these options are explored in
the ensuing chapters, applying the scenario building approaches in different ways to a set of
international case studies.
Notes
1
Delphi, an archaeological site and modern town in Greece, was the site of the Delphic Oracle, the most
important oracle in the classical Greek world. The Oracle was a site of worship of the god Apollo,
associated with medicine and healing. The Oracle gave prophecies during the warmest months of each
year (in the winter months Apollo deserted his temple). The Pythia, the priestess at the temple of Apollo,
was widely known for her prophecies inspired by Apollo. The Oracle is one of the most documented
religious institutions of the classical Greek world, mentioned by Herodotus, Plato and Aristotle.
2
Simons and Chabris (1999) show a number of individuals standing in a sports hall with a basketball. The
exercise is to count how many times the individuals pass a basketball to each other. At the end the viewer
is asked to share how many passes they counted. The viewer is then asked: 'Did you see the gorilla?
If not, watch again, this time looking out for and spotting the individual dressed in a gorilla costume
