Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 2.1
The VIBAT studies
Study (coverage in this topic)
Sponsor and date
VIBAT Auckland, New Zealand (
Chapter 7
)
University of Auckland and Auckland Council,
2010-12
Low carbon transport pathways in Jinan,
University of Oxford, Future of Cities Programme,
2010
INTRA-SIM Swindon
Swindon Borough Council, UK Department for
Transport; 2010
INTRA-SIM Oxfordshire (
Chapter 4
)
Oxfordshire County Council, UK Department for
Transport; 2009-10
VIBAT Victoria, Canada, scoping study
Transport Canada, 2008
VIBAT Delhi, India, scoping study (
Chapter 5
)
Asian Development Bank, 2008
VIBAT London (
Chapter 3
)
UCL UrbanBuzz Programme, HEFCE; 2007-09
VIBAT UK
UK Department for Transport, 2004-06
A key motivation for, and emphasis, in the work has been to apply the thinking of Van
der Heijden (1996) to transport; this means that the discussion of strategic policy choices -
the 'strategic conversation' - is seen as being critically important. An additional part of this
has been the development of the TC-SIM and INTRA-SIM simulation tools to help with the
discussion process and to understand the key trade-offs in decision-making. There are related
tools developed elsewhere, such as QUEST (Robinson et al., 2011), which is used to explore
sustainability futures in British Columbia, Canada. TC-SIM and INTRA-SIM are both used
as learning tools, but they are also meant to lead to social change in terms of city development
and travel behaviour. The key elements are to: (1) simplify the likely multiple policy choices
into key strategic decision points, (2) allow for multiple policy packaging and scenario analysis,
and (3) develop a comparison of likely impacts by scenarios in real time, either against a
single criterion (e.g. CO2) or multiple impact criteria (e.g. CO2, accessibility, accidents,
employment, etc.). Hence elements are added to the conventional scenario analysis and
backcasting methodologies to allow for a better strategic decision-making process against
single- or multi-criteria impacts. The participatory element is carried out with the involvement
of stakeholders using the simulation front end, but also in defining the scope of the policy
options available, the images of the future and likely implementation pathways or mechanisms.
The scenario building and backcasting approach hence allows the development of policy
pathways to agreed trend-break futures. These can represent desirable solutions to societal
problems, and a pathway back from the image of the future to the present. A policy pathway
or implementation programme can be developed to achieve the desirable future, and evaluated
in terms of physical, technological, socio-economic feasibility, and indeed multi-criteria policy
implications. Unlike the predictive forecast or scenario, backcasting is not intended to reveal
what the future is likely to be, or to simply put together a feasible image(s) of the future, but
instead indicate the relative feasibility of different potential policy futures. Similar to scenario
analysis, there is no particular onus on developing a view of the 'optimum' strategy, rather
an understanding of the possibilities under different futures. A participatory element of course
strengthens the emphasis on achievability of different futures. Perhaps a key strength is in
taking a 'fresh look' at difficult or intransigent issues - backcasting can operate as a 'protected
experimental space' in which ideas can be articulated and discussed, while ignoring the 'vested
interests and inherent rules of the outside world' (Quist et al., 2011).
