Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
DRIVERS OF CHANGE:
what is
internal and external to the
process?
BAU PROJECTION:
current trend
or impact of current policy?
Discussion with range
of policy-makers and
stakeholders
1. Context and Baseline
•
CO
2
baseline and BAU
• Set city transport objectives
• Inventory of measures being considered
WORKSHOP
with
policy-makers
INVENTORY:
what is left in and
out of the 'long list' of measures,
how is this framed, who decides,
and why?
COMPLEMENTARITY:
some
measures are supportive of
others?
2. Policy Packaging
• Consider complementary measures
•
Discussion with policy-
makers
Package into clusters of measures
Discussion with policy-
makers
3. Scenario Development
•
SCENARIOS:
what are the major
divergent issues, with high impact
and uncertainty?
QUANTIFICATION:
does
modelling help understand the
narratives and scales of change
required? What modelling tools
are available? Are some impacts
difficult to model?
Trend and uncertainties
• Scenario matrix or possibility space
WORKSHOP
with
policy-makers and
stakeholders
4. Impact Analysis - CO
2
and MCA
• Assess/model likely impact by scenario
•
Discussion with policy-
makers
Consider implementability and costing
• Refine scenarios and packages
•
Develop simulation software to help
discuss results
WORKSHOP
with
policy-makers and
stakeholders
IMPLEMENTATION:
what
programmes and pathways are
available? How should
governance mechanisms be
shaped to allow effective
implementation?
5. 'Backast' Pathway
Discussion with policy-
makers
•
Develop implementation
pathways
WIDER ISSUES AND QUESTIONS
PARTICIPATION
CORE STUDY PROCESS
Figure 2.14
VIBAT scenario building and backcasting study process
A series of Visioning and Backcasting for Transport (VIBAT) studies have been carried
out, over the period 2004-2013 (and ongoing), utilising and developing the backcasting
approach. Much of the commentary in this topic draws on this work, considering the different
contexts and the likely different BAU projections and sustainable transport futures. Some of
the VIBAT studies also include a simulation capability, either through a transport and carbon
simulation (TC-SIM) or through an integrated multi-criteria appraisal simulation (INTRA-
SIM), which helps to discuss the potential packaging of policies against end goals and also
explore the trade-offs involved in decision-making. Both these simulation models have been
designed to help in the participatory elements of the approach so that decision-makers and
others can explore the implications of the different choices that are open to them.
The general approach in the VIBAT studies is shown in
Figure 2.14
, with a series of stages
and different inputs in terms of participation. There are a number of critical issues and questions
that need to be considered throughout the study process, many of which are seen as 'technical'
issues, but of course reflect normative decisions in their own right. The definition of the BAU
projection, type of measures considered, development of scenarios, choice of modelling tools,
the decision to model itself, and the framing of possible governance mechanisms, all have
important impacts. Much of this is often determined with regards to the context, but is also
heavily dependent on the approach chosen by the researchers carrying out the work. These
issues often remain hidden in studies, but are critical to the end results.
Table 2.1
outlines the list of VIBAT studies that have been carried out, some of which are
explored in the later case study chapters. More details of the individual studies, including the
simulation tools developed, are also available on the project website:
www.vibat.org
.
