Paths Forward to Understanding and Managing Induced Seismicity in Energy Technology Development - Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies - page 126

TABLE 5.2 Steps for Hazard and Risk Assessment for a Single Project

Step
(see
corresponding
box in
Figure 5.1)

A.
Probability
needed

B. Method C.

Technology
Dependent?

D. Region
Dependent?

E. Depth
Dependent?

1 1A.

P[generate
M ≥ 2
earthquakes]

1B.
Statistical

1C. Yes,
depends on
factors such
as volume,
pressure,
rate, and
depth

1D. Yes,
tectonically
active versus
stable region

1E. Yes,
large
earthquakes
usually not
induced
near surface

2 2A.

P[shaking
felt at
surface]

2B.
Analytical/
Statistical

2C. Yes,
depends on
magnitude
distribution
and
maximum
magnitude

2D. Yes,
depends on
earthquake
properties

2E. Yes,
deeper
induced
earthquakes
may not be
felt

3 3A.

P[strength of
shaking]

3B.
Analytical

3C. Yes,
depends on
maximum
magnitude

3D. Yes,
depends on
earthquake
properties

3E. Yes,
shallow
earthquakes
will generate
stronger
shaking

4 4A.

P[structures
and people
affected]

4B.
Analytical

4C. No 4D. Yes,

depends on
structural
strength and
tolerance for
shaking

4E. Yes,
deeper
earthquakes,
if felt at the
surface,
may affect a
larger area

NOTE: Gray shaded cells indicate methods that have to be developed to estimate probabilities (“P”) for
various aspects of an induced seismic event shown in the green-shaded cells. These four aspects include the
probability of generating an earthquake of M > 2.0, the probability of shaking being felt at the surface, the
probability of different strengths of shaking from an earthquake, and the probability that the earthquake
shaking will affect structures and people.